Oil: Saudi weather

It is never easy to see ahead in the oil market. Never mind. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, seems delighted. It raised its production as oil prices collapsed last year, refusing to cede market share to rival US shale oil producers. This has had an effect: US onshore oil rig counts have long since started to descend. And US Energy Information Agency forecasts point to a decline in shale oil flows this month. Cue the confetti in Riyadh.

US shale producers, however, plan to rain on the Saudi victory parade. Hess, for example, says it could keep its production in North Dakota steady with half the number of rigs it used last year. And the money keeps flowing. US explorers have raised $12bn in equity alone this year, up 49 per cent from a year ago, Dealogic reckons.

World oil supply, after rising in 2014, did contract slightly in the first quarter, on International Energy Agency figures. But this fight is not over. That much is clear.

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