Japan military reform poses threat to Abenomics

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will this week push ahead with plans to loosen rules governing the military, even as analysts warn this could squander political capital needed to pursue tough economic reforms.

The military reform, a significant shift in Japan's pacifist outlook, is just one piece of legislation scheduled for approval this summer.

Parliament normally closes in June but, according to political analysts, Mr Abe is set to prolong the current session into August as he pursues economic reform. The summer of legislation will be crucial for the prime minister's Abenomics stimulus, which is aimed at ending 20 years of on-and-off deflation and restoring the country to sustainable growth.

But if Mr Abe sacrifices too much political capital on the security changes, it could threaten his ability to pass structural economic reforms - the so-called "third arrow" of Abenomics.

"This could well lead to a 10 percentage point fall in the approval rating for the Abe cabinet," said Takao Toshikawa, editor of the political newsletter Tokyo Insideline.

The ruling Liberal Democratic party and its Komeito coalition partner signed off on the package of security bills on Monday. They are set for cabinet approval on Thursday and could reach parliament by Friday.

The security bills will put into effect a new US-Japan defence agreement and last summer's reinterpretation of Japan's pacifist constitution by Mr Abe. They are based on the principle that Japan can and should fight to protect its allies, rather than merely fend off direct attacks on its territory.

One bill creates a framework for Japan's military to provide logistical support for multinational peacekeeping forces. Another revises ten different laws governing Japan's military and its response to armed attacks.

The security changes are unpopular with the public. A recent poll for JNN showed 46 per cent of the public against the changes compared with 36 per cent in favour. That may get worse as the measures go through parliament.

"Opposition parties will likely leverage public sentiment to prolong the debate," said Tobias Harris, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence.

Mr Abe's approval ratings are hovering above 50 per cent and he has generally moved cautiously on reforms in order to keep it there. He has tried to show the public he is prioritising the economy rather than his own goal of security and constitutional reform.

But after a strong LDP performance in April's local elections, Mr Abe has a breathing space before his own re-election as party leader in September, and then upper house elections next year. That makes it one of the best opportunities he will have to pass legislation to reform the economy.

Attacked in parliament for telling the US Congress he would pass the law this summer before submitting it to the legislature, Mr Abe said he had been signalling his intention since last year. "In no way is this contempt for parliament," he said.

Mr Toshikawa said the prime minister would try to push a series of less popular economic measures, such as agricultural and labour market reform, through parliament during the next few months on top of the security legislation.

Mr Abe will hope the sense of economic momentum from a rising stock market sustains his support. He could then turn to more popular areas of policy in the autumn, such as measures to support families, and seek to rebuild his popularity with the public.

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