Obama's hard truths for the Gulf states on Iran

If President Barack Obama succeeds in signing a tough and enforceable accord with Iran next month to constrain Tehran's nuclear programme, the deal will be his outstanding foreign policy achievement. But while the White House may view the prospect as a potential game-changer in US-Iran relations, it is regarded with dismay by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

For Riyadh and its Sunni allies, a nuclear pact, and the progressive lifting of international sanctions on Iran, would give their Shia rivals a big boost in a region increasingly plagued by sectarian conflict. Now that the US is increasingly self-sufficient in energy, the oil-rich Gulf states also worry about the strength of ties with Washington. This is the backdrop to Mr Obama's decision to hold this week's summit with the six members of the Gulf Co-operation Council at Camp David.

The anxieties of the Saudis and their allies are understandable. Until now, the Obama administration has viewed the Iran talks as a hermetically sealed exercise, one aimed purely at stopping Tehran joining the club of global nuclear powers. But Gulf leaders have long complained that any accord is bound to enhance Iran's influence across the region, boosting its proxies fighting in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. The Saudi fear is not merely that a deal will fail to cap the Iranian nuclear programme properly. It is that the lifting of sanctions will release tens of billions of dollars of frozen Iranian assets, allowing Tehran to meddle in the region even more.

Given those concerns, Mr Obama is right to have convened today's summit. However, Gulf leaders want this to be more than an exercise in diplomacy and seek concrete assurances from the White House. They are pushing for increased arms sales from the US and a written security commitment that Washington will come to their aid in the event of a full-scale attack by Iran .

There are practical steps that the Obama administration can take to allay those fears and boost Gulf security. The US can promise to challenge Iran's use of proxies around the region, ranging from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthi rebels who control large parts of Yemen. This could include co-operation on stopping arms shipments and greater intelligence sharing. But there are limits to how far President Obama should go. The one thing the Gulf states do not need, for example, is more weaponry. Saudi Arabia's annual military budget last year was $80bn, the fourth largest in the world and six times bigger than that of Iran.

What is more important is that Mr Obama uses this summit to deliver some hard truths to the Gulf leadership. He should have two messages. The first is that the US will not pick sides in this sectarian conflict. If Iran makes significant moves to destabilise the status quo, passing sophisticated weaponry to its proxies, the US should be prepared to stand firm. But helping Saudi Arabia in its efforts to tilt the battlefield in Yemen and roll back Iran influence should not be a US goal.

Mr Obama must also make clear that he will not be deflected from his pursuit of the Iran nuclear deal. It should not be depicted as "a grand bargain" that shifts the balance of power in the region. But, after decades of enmity, it offers the chance of a different type of relationship between Washington and Tehran; and it creates the possibility for pragmatic leaders such as President Hassan Rouhani to exercise more influence domestically. The Gulf leaders will harbour profound doubts. But a nuclear deal would help to avert the threat of war and a broader nuclear arms race in the Middle East. This is surely in the interests of all parties.

© The Financial Times Limited 2015. All rights reserved.
FT and Financial Times are trademarks of the Financial Times Ltd.
Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in any way.
Euro2day.gr is solely responsible for providing this translation and the Financial Times Limited does not accept any liability for the accuracy or quality of the translation