Last-minute tactical voting shifts could decide the election

David Cameron and Ed Miliband go into polling day with a final series of opinion polls putting Conservatives and Labour still neck and neck: five weeks of campaigning has failed to break the deadlock.

According to the political betting market, Mr Cameron is reckoned to be on course to win roughly 290 seats to Mr Miliband's 265, a result that might just allow the prime minister to cling on to power with Liberal Democrat support.

But the Labour leader has more potential allies in a hung parliament, hence the equal odds some bookmakers offer on Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband becoming Britain's next prime minister.

However last-minute shifts of voters in closely contested seats - or widespread tactical voting, as urged by some newspapers - could change everything in an election of fine margins.

Polling organisations have spent the final hours of the campaign trying to detect such shifts, such as the "shy Tory" phenomenon that saw an 11th-hour increase in support for John Major in the tight 1992 election.

Some pollsters have concluded that if there is a late shift, it may only happen at the moment voters enter the polling station.

YouGov on Wednesday put both Labour and Tories on 34 points; ICM had them tied on 35 points; TNS gave the Tories a one-point lead; Opinium's final survey also gave the Conservatives a one-point advantage.

The final polls suggest Ukip is the third biggest party nationally in terms of voter support, typically polling 11-12 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats around 9.

On the eve of polling, how are things looking in the four key electoral contests identified by the Financial Times?

CON/LAB MARGINALS<

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Labour believes it has 25 current Conservative and Lib Dem seats "in the bag" and has targeted in the final days another 20-25 mainly Tory seats in England and Wales where the two parties are "neck and neck".

Those seats include Nuneaton - only 28th on Labour's target list of Tory seats - Pudsey, Northampton North, Vale of Glamorgan, Wirral West and Loughborough.

But even if Labour added most of those 50 target seats to the 258 seats won by Gordon Brown in 2010, those gains would be largely offset by expected losses north of the border, where Labour is defending 41 seats.

SCOTLANDAnthony Wells of YouGov notes that all polling evidence gives the SNP a very large lead over Labour of between 20 and 35 points, but says it is possible that they are overstating SNP support.

Anti-SNP tactical voters might also hold back the nationalist tide somewhat: for example a Lord Ashcroft poll last week suggested Tory tactical voters might save Labour's Scottish leader Jim Murphy in East Renfrewshire.

But Mr Wells says: "The difference will only be between a "vast landslide" and a "huge landslide". I cannot see the polls being so wrong that the SNP doesn't get a crushing victory."

LIB DEM BATTLE FOR SURVIVAL<>The party has fought a highly concentrated campaign in key seats and Nick Clegg has won broadly favourable reviews; the party's poll ratings have nudged up.

The Conservatives believe they are squeezing the Lib Dem vote, especially in the South West, and the spread betting markets predict that Mr Clegg will win only 26 seats - less than half of the 57 he won in 2010.

The Lib Dems face a near wipeout in Scotland and are expected to lose nearly all the seats in England where the incumbent MP is standing down. But Mr Clegg could still hold the balance of power.

THE UKIP SURGENigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has declared himself a late convert to the appeal of proportional representation and a glance at the polling data reveals why.

Ukip support has fallen since the highs of last autumn when the party won two by-elections but it has not fallen as much as Tory strategists hoped: most polls put the party comfortably above 10 per cent.

But Mr Farage has a struggle on his hands to win South Thanet and Ukip are tipped to win only a handful of other seats, including Clacton and Thurrock. A proportional voting system might have given him nearer 70 seats.

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