Sturgeon predicts historic SNP win in Scotland

The Scottish National party is "within touching distance" of an unprecedented victory in a Westminster election, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon declared on the last day of campaigning.

Panelbase on Wednesday became the latest in a series of pollsters to predict an SNP landslide in Scotland. It found 48 per cent of voters planning to back the Nationalists, once-dominant Labour on just 26 per cent and the Conservatives on 14 per cent. The Liberal Democrats had 5 per cent.

With Labour expected to lose most of its 41 Westminster seats in Scotland, Ed Miliband appealed to Scottish voters, saying he understood their patriotism, pride and desire for change.

"If I'm prime minister I will hold Scotland's interests in my heart and my head," Mr Miliband. He said Labour was in "touching distance" of government, but this would be at risk if seats lost to the SNP resulted in the Conservatives remaining the largest party in the House of Commons. 

In a campaign appearance in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon told party activists the SNP could win most of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats.

"We are within touching distance of doing something the SNP has never done in our history . . . winning a Westminster election," she said to applause. The SNP currently have six seats in Westminster and has never won more than the 11 taken in October 1974.

Although Ms Sturgeon is not herself standing for election as an MP, she has dominated the SNP's well-funded and tightly organised campaign. The Scottish first minister's image is reproduced on almost every SNP leaflet and even across the side of the helicopter that has been shuttling her between events across Scotland.

In a signal of SNP faith in Ms Sturgeon's appeal, activists at the event at Edinburgh's traditional "Speakers' Corner" off Princes Street carried posters, badges and even umbrellas emblazoned with the slogan: "I'm with Nicola".

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Ms Sturgeon even got a thumbs-up from some passing tourists from north east England. "I think she would be a good leader and I'm wishing that if she were to take Scotland independent, she would also annexe Tyne and Wear and Northumbria," joked one retired education adviser from the area.

A retired teacher from Durham said she was against Scottish independence and hoped for a Labour victory on Thursday, but could understand Ms Sturgeon's appeal. "If I was Scottish I would probably support her," she said.

Many Scots are much less admiring. Political rivals complain that Ms Sturgeon that has got away with policy positions such as a call for "full fiscal autonomy" for her nation that in a time of low oil prices would be disastrous for Scotland's finances.

Supporters of continued union with England say her insistence that this election is not about independence is a ruse. Some say a wave of tactical voting could limit the SNP's advance, while Labour hopes that it can bring out core supporters who may have been reluctant to admit to pollsters that they still back the beleaguered party.

And while Ms Sturgeon insists the party is taking nothing for granted, sky-high expectations - fuelled by polls suggesting the SNP could win almost all Scotland's 59 seats - mean that even a haul much larger than the six the party took in 2010 could seem like a let-down.

SNP success on Thursday would bring its own challenges. Speaking from under an umbrella with the slogan "Stronger for Scotland", Ms Sturgeon claimed it was a "simple truth" that the more seats the SNP won, the more power Scotland would have.

But even a Scottish landslide would deliver clout only on the margins of a 650-seat House of Commons and maximising influence could require compromises that test party unity.

The SNP is now the bookies' favourite to win even in the Edinburgh North and Leith constituency, home to the elegant 19th century New Town and its conservative legions of well-heeled lawyers and financial professionals.

One retired fish merchant said SNP success would take many of his neighbours aback - but that their famous New Town reserve meant any emotions would be muted. "They won't say anything, as is their habit," he said. "They're tight-lipped."

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