Netanyahu and Herzog parties tied in Israeli exit polls

Benjamin Netanyahu's rightwing Likud party has avoided a widely expected trouncing by Isaac Herzog's Zionist Union after surging in the polls and tying with its centre-left rival at the end of one of Israel's most bitterly fought recent election campaigns.

Exit polls released on Tuesday after voting ended showed Mr Herzog's party evenly matched with the prime minister's after an election that effectively became a referendum on Mr Netanyahu's three terms in office and Israel's fraying relations with the outside world.

Likud's unexpectedly strong showing came after a ferocious final week of campaigning that saw the wily Israeli leader lobby fiercely for far-right swing voters with a series of controversial, divisive remarks.

"It seemed like a competitive race for the premiership, and it drew voters to the big two parties," said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. "Netanyahu got rightwing voters who were afraid of him losing; his media blitz of the past few days worked really well, and he got additional votes from the other rightwing parties."

Final pre-election polls published last Friday had suggested Mr Herzog's party would beat Likud by four seats, raising the centre-left camp's hopes of victory and putting the 54-year-old former lawyer and government minister within reach of ending Mr Netanyahu's long grip on power.

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When early results came in on Tuesday, both parties ended up doing better than expected, at the expense of smaller centrist and other parties that fared worse than in opinion polls. But the lead widely expected for the centre-left was gone.

An exit poll published by Channel 10 just after the end of voting at 10pm Israeli time on Tuesday showed the two parties with 27 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset. A Channel 2 poll showed Mr Netanyahu's Likud with 28 seats - one more than the Zionist Union's 27.

"Against all odds: a great victory for the Likud," Mr Netanyahu tweeted in response to the result. "A major victory for the people of Israel!"

Ayman Odeh's Joint List, a new unified party representing Israel's Arab minority, came in third with a projected 13 seats in the two TV channels' exit polls, positioning it to be the largest opinion party if a unity government is now formed.

A new party poised to play kingmaker for the next government is Kulanu ("All of us") , founded by Likud defector and former communications minister Moshe Kahlon, which will have a projected nine to 10 seats in the Knesset. its support will be essential if Mr Netanyahu tries to shore up support to form a coalition on his own.

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Analysts in Israel said that Mr Netanyahu was better placed than Mr Herzog to lead the next governing coalition - either a broad government of national unity, as Israel had in 1967 and 1984, or a rightwing coalition bringing in Naftali Bennett's far-right Jewish Home, religious parties, and possibly Mr Kahlon's Kulanu.

"The odds are that he will be prime minister," said Yehuda Ben Meir, senior research fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies. "It would be almost impossible for Mr Herzog to lead a government."

In the final week of the campaign, with Likud's poll numbers sinking, Mr Netanyahu - normally one of Israel's self-assured leaders - made a number of moves and remarks widely interpreted as panicky, even desperate.

On Monday the rightwing leader visited a Jewish settlement in occupied East Jerusalem and said he would not allow the creation of a Palestinian state if he were to be re-elected.

The rejection of the two-state solution marked an open disavowal of his own past support for US-sponsored peace talks and was widely interpreted as a last-ditch effort to shore up support from voters farther to the right. Israel's ties with the US were already under strain from Mr Netanyahu's speech to Congress two weeks ago criticising nuclear negotiations with Iran led by Barack Obama's administration.

On Tuesday Mr Netanyahu warned that the right's grip on power was in jeopardy, and urged Likud voters to come out in support because "Arabs are voting in droves". The comment was condemned by Mr Herzog, and went viral on social media, where the prime minister faced accusations of racist incitement against minority Palestinians, who make up 20 per cent of Israel's population.

The split result will leave Israelis uncertain over the shape of their next government for some time. Under Israeli constitutional practice, President Reuven Rivlin will now hand the task of forming a government to the party he thinks has a better chance of forming a coalition, which will have 42 days to do so.

Likud has more natural allies in the Knesset than does the Zionist Union, formerly the Labour party. Mr Odeh's party has said it might consider backing Mr Herzog as prime minister, but would not join any Israeli governing coalition. Mr Netanyahu said earlier on Tuesday that the first party he would turn to to form a coalition would be Mr Bennett's Jewish Home.

Benjamin Netanyahu's rightwing Likud party has avoided a widely expected trouncing at the polls by Isaac Herzog's centre-left Zionist Union with both parties surpassing expectations and coming in tied after one of Israel's most bitterly fought recent elections.

Exit polls released on Tuesday evening after voting ended showed Mr Herzog's party at best tied with the prime minister's after an electoral campaign that became a referendum on Mr Netanyahu's three terms in office and Israel's fraying relations with the outside world.

An exit poll published by Israel's Channel 10 just after the close of polling stations at 10pm Israeli time showed the two parties with 27 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset.

A Channel 2 exit poll showed Mr Netanyahu's Likud with 28 seats - one more than the Zionist Union's 27 - after a final week of campaigning that saw the Israeli leader campaign fiercely for far-right swing voters with hardline remarks.

"It seemed like a competitive race for the premiership, and it drew voters to the big two parties," said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. "Netanyahu got rightwing voters who were afraid of him losing; his media blitz of the past few days worked really well, and he got his additional votes from the other rightwing parties."

Final pre-election polls published last Friday had showed Mr Herzog's party four seats ahead of Likud, raising the centre-left camp's hopes of victory and putting the 54-year-old former lawyer and government minister within reach of ending Mr Netanyahu's grip on power.

In the end, both parties ended up doing better than expected, at the expense of smaller centrist and other parties. Ayman Odeh's Joint List, representing Israel's Arab minority, came in third, with a projected 13 seats in the two TV channels' exit polls.

In the final two weeks of the campaign, with Likud's poll numbers sinking, Mr Netanyahu - normally one of Israel's most self-assured politicians - made moves and remarks widely interpreted as panicky, even desperate.

On Monday, the rightwing prime minister visited a Jewish settlement in East Jerusalem and said he would not allow the creation of a Palestinian state if he were to be re-elected. The statement marked a disavowal of his own past support for US-sponsored peace talks and was interpreted as a last-ditch effort to shore up support from voters far to the right.

On Tuesday, he warned that the right's grip on power was in jeopardy and told Likud voters that "Arabs are voting in droves". The comment went viral on social media, where the prime minister was accused of racist incitement against minority Arabs.

A split result would leave Israelis uncertain over the shape of their next government for days, possibly weeks. Under Israeli constitutional practice, President Reuven Rivlin will now hand the task of forming a government to the party he thinks has a better chance of forming a coalition, which will have 42 days to do so.

Speaking after the vote on Tuesday evening, Mr Rivlin said he would support the creation of a unity government between the two biggest parties. Israel has had unity governments in the past, including in 1967 and 1984.

Likud has more natural allies in the Knesset than does the Zionist Union, formerly the Labor party. Mr Netanyahu said earlier on Monday that his first choice of coalition partner would be Naftali Bennett's far-right, pro-settler Jewish Home.

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