Republican hopefuls find deep pockets for most expensive campaign

Al Cardenas, one of the most influential men in Republican circles in Florida, was attending a political event in January at a luxury hotel in South Beach, Miami when he found himself in a bind.

Marco Rubio, the young Cuban-American senator, had invited his friends and donors to the Delano hotel for his annual get-together. But this year the tone was different. As he listened to the conversations, Mr Cardenas realised that Mr Rubio was seriously considering declaring a run for the White House.

Mr Cardenas, a partner at the law firm of Squire Patton Boggs, was an old friend who had hired Mr Rubio from law school. But the young senator was about to challenge his close friend Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor who plans to run for president. "I told him I would not sit in," said Mr Cardenas.

As others wondered if Mr Rubio would make a declaration, he suddenly raised expectations by thanking everyone for coming for his big announcement.

"Everyone dropped silent," said one of the attendees. "Then he said 'I've saved 15 per cent by switching to Geico'," jokingly taking a line from a famous television commercial for the car insurance company.

Jokes aside, Mr Rubio was clearly preparing to run. But he had to make sure he could raise enough money for what is expected to be the most expensive election in history.

When he launched his campaign this week, he did so with the confidence that Norman Brayan, a car dealership billionaire and former Philadelphia Eagles American football team owner, had promised $10m for the 2016 race.

Alex Conant, a spokesman for the Rubio campaign, said the decision to run was independent of any donor, but said one of the main factors was whether he could find enough money to wage a competitive campaign. Jorge Luis Lopez, a lobbyist who is fundraising for the senator, said "Norm had an effect on his final decision [because] he stepped up and said 'I've got your back'."

For any contender to be viable in 2016, they will need big money. In 2012, candidates spent $2.6bn, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. But Candice Nelson, a politics professor at American University, said the final total for 2016 could be twice that amount.

"The Republicans have such a crowded field that it is going to take a lot of money to break out," said Ms Nelson.

Many Republicans think Mr Bush will have a big fundraising advantage because of the extensive network his family has built over decades. But the strong numbers that have recently emerged from the camp of Ted Cruz - the Texas senator who is one of three declared candidates alongside Mr Rubio and Rand Paul, the Kentucky senator - have surprised many people.

In the first nine days of his campaign, Mr Cruz raised just over $4m from individual donors. But observers have been even more surprised by the $31m that several "super-PACs" - groups that can raise unlimited funds but are barred from co-ordinating with the campaign - have raised. "Ted Cruz's numbers just changed the geometry," said Mr Lopez.

Richard Briffault, a Columbia Law School campaign finance expert, said there were a growing number of very rich people who are willing to invest in politics, which means that even with such a large group of Republican hopefuls candidates have "a real possibility of raising a lot of money".

David Frum, a former speech writer for George W Bush, said the Cruz numbers pointed to a "regional rebalancing" from the traditional donor bases of Los Angeles and New York, which is partly explained by the economic boom in Texas.

In the 2008 presidential and congressional election, the top seven zip codes for donations were in New York while the other three in the top 10 were Beverly Hills, Washington DC and a Maryland suburb, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. In 2012, only two New York codes made the list, which saw new entries from Houston, Dallas, Las Vegas and Chicago.

Rick Tyler, Mr Cruz's campaign spokesman, said Texas accounted for half the $4m raised, followed by California, Florida and then New York.

"People understood that Senator Cruz had deep grassroots supports and that has only strengthened since he announced for president," said Mr Tyler.

For Mr Rubio and the other Republicans seen as second tier contenders - in the group behind Mr Bush and Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor who is also expected to run - those numbers have sent a strong signal about the amount of money GOP candidates will need to win their party's nomination.

Mr Braman declined to confirm the $10m figure but said that his support for Mr Rubio would be "very substantial".

"We have to move beyond the Bushes and the Clintons," said Mr Braman. "Senator Rubio has the commitments and the resources to run a first-class campaign. I am not the only one. I know others who have committed substantial sums as well."

Twitter: @DimiSevastopulo

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