Bavarian political shift threatens Merkel

Martin Zeil, leading candidate for the liberal Free Democrats at this Sunday's regional election in Bavaria, is categorical: what has been simmering in the affluent southern German state over the past few weeks "is nothing short of a political revolution".

If opinion polls are to be believed the Christian Social Union risks losing its absolute majority in Bavaria for the first time in 46 years. The shake-up, if it happens, could have sizeable implications for Angela Merkel, the chancellor.

Since 1962, the sister party to Ms Merkel's Christian Democratic Union has been ruling Germany's richest state alone. "Party, state and business have become enmeshed in a very unhealthy way," says Franz Maget, the affable Social Democratic candidate and perennial loser.

In the midst of Oktoberfest, the annual beer-drinking festival, Munich looked as Bavarian as ever this week as locals and tourists converged on to the Theresienwiese park, epicentre of the raucous festivities, many clad in cleavage-revealing dirndl dresses and rough Lederhosen.

Yet the rustic folklore and cheerful binge-drinking belie a darkening political mood in the state. Frustration at the CSU – a mixture of general fatigue, impatience at a gaffe-prone campaign, and mounting rejection of its social conservatism – is rising even within the party's ranks.

The highly-respected Politbarometer poll gave the party 47 per cent of the votes last week, down from the 60.7 per cent it scored in 2003. "Bavaria is at last turning into a real democracy," says Mr Zeil.

"This is the first interesting Bavarian election for as long as I can remember," says Sepp Daxenberger, the bearded organic farmer who leads the Green party ticket in the state. "Up to now, the only question was how far above 50 per cent the CSU would be."

If the radical Left party, a new movement that forced its way into three west German parliaments this year, enters the Bavarian house – it needs at least 5 per cent of the votes and is being credited with just over 4 per cent – the CSU would have to form a coalition, probably with the FDP, to stay in power.

The implications at the federal level would be considerable. One immediate consequence would be the weakening of Ms Merkel's "grand coalition" in the Bundesrat, the upper chamber of the national parliament, which represents the regions. But the main concern for the chancellor is the impact on her re-election bid next year, since staunchly conservative Bavaria has traditionally provided a vast reservoir of votes for the CDU candidate to the chancellery.

"The absolute majority has been one of our hallmarks. There is no question that losing it would be a sea-change for the CSU," says Christine Harderthauer, the CSU's youthful general secretary. "But it matters for Merkel too. The stronger the CSU, the higher the conservative vote in the country."

A troubled CSU is good news for the Social Democrats, already energised by a coup this month, which ousted Kurt Beck, the SPD's terminally unpopular chairman, and anointed Frank-Walter Steinmeier, foreign minister, to lead the party in to next year's election.

The reshuffle came too late to have an impact on the Bavarian election – polls credit Mr Maget with 20 per cent of the vote, a shade above the 19.6 per cent he scored in 2003 and the SPD's worst score in Bavaria since the war.

But combined with a poor showing by the CSU on Sunday, it could give the Social Democrats a much needed sentiment boost, presenting Ms Merkel with a more threatening challenge next year than she bargained for.

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A CSU rout could also change the make-up of the Federal Assembly, the parliamentary body that convenes every five years to elect the federal president, threatening the re-election of the CDU's Horst Kohler next May.

The shockwaves could reach as far as Brussels.

In one of its many cherished peculiarities, the CSU runs for European elections with its own list. Given the overwhelming support it normally enjoys in Bavaria, it has so far managed to reach the 5 per cent threshold, calculated nationally, that guarantees representation in the European parliament.

With dwindling support in the state, it could easily miss this threshold at the next European election in June, leaving German conservatives with fewer seats and reduced influence in the EU legislature.

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