Burundi battle highlights ethnic tensions and risks of third term

Rival groups of soldiers battled for control of Burundi on Thursday after an attempted coup in the tiny landlocked state has underlined the threat posed to regional stability by African presidents who overstay their welcome.

General Godefroid Niyombare tried to take power after weeks of protests sparked by President Pierre Nkurunziza's decision to pursue a third term in office, contravening the terms of a peace deal that paved the way for the end of a civil war in which 300,000 people were killed. Millions have been killed in war and ethnic conflict in the region since the 1990s.

More than 70,000 people have fled the country in recent weeks, alarming neighbours, unprepared for refugees. "The situation in Burundi is terrible for Burundi and very serious for the region - the main thing is to make sure [the Burundi crisis] does not take on an ethnic dimension," said a senior Tanzanian diplomat.

So far the fighting in Burundi - which is made up mostly of Hutus but has a minority Tutsi population - has not split on ethnic lines. "I don't think [the Burundi crisis] is looking ethnic at the moment but there are some straws in the wind . . . The Rwandans are more worried than the rest," says another senior diplomat in the region. In 1994, genocide in Rwanda saw close to a million Tutsis and Hutu sympathisers killed by Hutu extremists.

The crisis has its roots in the government's failure to implement the terms of the peace deal. In recent years, the ruling party has rowed back freedoms, promoted the use of its ruthless youth militia and failed to prosecute a single person for crimes committed during the civil war. Last year it also tried to undo key ethnic power-sharing provisos stipulated in the constitution.

General Godefroid Niyombare, who became the country's first Hutu leader of an army historically dominated by Tutsis in 2009, is widely respected, also commanding support within the ruling party. "He [ Gen Niyombare] is the right person to defuse the ethnic tension," said Thierry Vircoulon at International Crisis Group. "A bloodless coup might have been some sort of best option."

While the African Union condemned the coup, it opposed a third term for Mr Nkurunziza. Gen Niyombare was sacked as intelligence chief earlier this year for voicing his opposition to a third term for the former Hutu rebel leader. "While in principle [regional leaders] object to a coup, quietly they were waiting to see if it would all succeed," said a well-informed western observer after an emergency regional summit in Tanzania. Those familiar with events say Mr Nkurunziza remains in Tanzania for now.

More broadly, the crisis in Burundi highlights the threat posed by presidents who seek to extend their term in office. Other presidents who appear to be considering changing the constitution to stand again include Democratic Republic of Congo's Joseph Kabila and Rwanda's Paul Kagame. "The African Union has over time evolved to come out against military coups but unfortunately they've not gone so far as to prescribe that there should be term limits, but what we've seen is that the African public is trying to say at the very least we shouldn't be forced to see the face of one particular leader for too long," said Donald Deya, head of the Pan-African Lawyers Union.

Attorney generals from the East African Community, the regional bloc of which Burundi is a member, will meet next week to determine whether Mr Nkurunziza may legitimately stand again. A Burundi constitutional court last week reversed its earlier decision to stop the president from standing for a third term. The decision to allow the president to stand again was in any case made under duress: one judge fled the country the day before the ruling. East Africa's legal experts will be mindful of the example of Burkina Faso last year, when populist revolt led to regime change after incumbent Blaise Compaore attempted to change the constitution to enable him to stay on. Increasingly, people are no longer willing to put up with leaders who stay beyond their due date. "There is the law of diminishing returns - even with leaders who are at the beginning sensitive to citizens' needs and very aspirational, you see that they become, the longer they stay, lazy and entrenched, with cabals around them who begin stealing," added Mr Deya. "Also, with Africa's very diverse states you want to see power rotating - you don't want to see power in the hands of one cabal."

© The Financial Times Limited 2015. All rights reserved.
FT and Financial Times are trademarks of the Financial Times Ltd.
Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in any way.
Euro2day.gr is solely responsible for providing this translation and the Financial Times Limited does not accept any liability for the accuracy or quality of the translation