MPs a step closer to decision on third Heathrow airport runway

Heathrow airport's management awoke on Friday morning to a changed political landscape - with many senior opponents of the third runway blown away by the electorate.

Among the fallen were Vince Cable, the business secretary, who as MP for Twickenham had been a figurehead for local opposition. His Liberal Democrat party - expecting to be in government again - had made a manifesto promise to oppose all new runways. Now, removed from government and with only eight MPs, they no longer wield any influence over the decision.

After decades of delay, a runway decision now looks more likely, people close to the process said. "The worst outcome would have been a coalition in which the Liberal Democrats drew a red line," one person said. "In that sense the election was positive for something being done."

Meanwhile, Ed Miliband has resigned as leader of the Labour party - six years ago he threatened to step down from Gordon Brown's cabinet over an earlier incarnation of the Heathrow plan.

Michael Dugher, who has remained as shadow transport secretary, is an enthusiastic backer of the project, albeit only if it meets certain climate change criteria and has a positive impact beyond southeast England, he says.

The position of George Osborne, the chancellor - who backs a third runway at Heathrow - is more secure than ever.

"The stars are lining up for us now," said one source at the airport.

It could still be that the long-awaited report by the Airports Commission on where to build a new runway in southeast England will recommend expansion at Gatwick, in West Sussex.

But there is a widespread perception in the aviation industry and in Westminster that it will opt for Heathrow.

"The whole process is evidence-led but his body language is Heathrow," said one person who has spoken to Sir Howard Davies, chair of the commission. "This is not the first time that someone has been through the whole process and come back with an identical conclusion."

Yet there is still heartfelt opposition from a handful of Conservative party opponents including Justine Greening, development secretary; Zac Goldsmith, MP for Richmond; and Boris Johnson, mayor of London and now Uxbridge MP. They have the sympathy of other MPs with nearby constituencies, including foreign secretary Philip Hammond and Theresa May, the home secretary.

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Mr Goldsmith repeated his threat to step down from his seat, where he has just increased his majority from 4,000 to 23,000.

Mr Johnson said in his election address that he would "lie down in front of the bulldozers" to prevent the runway being built. On Tuesday he insisted the prospects of the scheme were still "virtually nil". But he said that if the runway went ahead he would not resign from his new position on the Tory "political cabinet" - a regular gathering of all cabinet ministers that excludes civil servants.

If this did happen, a congestion charge would have to be set up around the airport to cope with the extra traffic and pollution, he said. "I don't want [a congestion charge] . . . I think it's the wrong thing, but if you look at the pollution and congestion impact, you would almost certainly have to go forward with such a proposal."

Mr Johnson's preferred option - "Boris Island", a brand new airport in the Thames Estuary - has already been ruled out.

The airports commission was forced to launch a new public consultation on air quality last week, to avert the threat of a legal challenge. While Heathrow has been criticised for breaching air pollution limits in the past, it has proposed mitigation measures that have been accepted as realistic by the commission.

Daniel Moylan, the mayor's aviation adviser, told the FT he would be "astonished" if the report recommended Heathrow. "The airport is already in breach of the government's legal obligations over air quality and this would only get worse."

The commission's report is due to be published in late June but ministers may not immediately accept the recommendations in full.

Instead, they are likely to indicate their broad support while seeking several months to make a final decision.

Senior officials at the Department for Transport have urged politicians to make a faster decision, arguing that they need to start work on the proposed legislation and to prepare for expected legal challenges.

"This is a legal minefield," said one person close to the process. "The government itself will have to consult on the [final] proposal. It cannot say yes we will do that, because people will say they need the opportunity to make their points."

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