El Nino confirmation puts farmers and climate specialists on alert

Farmers, commodity investors and climate specialists are braced for extreme weather this year after Australia's meteorology agency warned of the emergence of El Nino.

In its latest bulletin, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said thresholds for the weather phenomenon had been reached in the tropical Pacific for the first time since March 2010.

"Prolonged El Nino-like conditions have meant that some areas are more vulnerable to the impact of warmer temperatures and drier conditions," said Neil Plummer, assistant director for climate information services.

El Nino refers to a warming of Pacific sea surface temperatures that occurs naturally every few years and can trigger droughts in some parts of the world and floods in others, depending on its strength.

The weather phenomenon is linked to droughts in Southeast Asia as well as warm sea temperatures in South America, affecting prices of metals, wheat, coffee, sugar and cotton.

The prospect of a strong El Nino could scarcely come at a more important time in the 20-year history of UN climate change negotiations.

At the end of this year in Paris, officials from nearly 200 countries are due to seal an effective global agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions, a goal that has proved elusive.

The talks are frequently criticised by climate change sceptics who say a slowdown in the rate of global warming since the last big El Nino, in 1998, suggests little need for urgent action.

Meteorologists had warned of an El Nino developing last year, due to rises in sea temperature, but conditions weakened later in the year.

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Australia's confirmation comes several months after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US announced the emergence of El Nino this year.

Commodities analysts at Societe Generale say nickel has been the best performer in past El Nino conditions, with zinc, coffee, cocoa, cotton and soyabean displaying significant price spikes during the phenomenon.

In previous El Nino events, droughts in Indonesia, a leading nickel producer, have hit production "by affecting hydroelectric power generation facilities and lowering the water levels of inland waterways that are vital for ore transportation", the bank said in a recent report. Similarly, flooding in zinc mines in Peru, the world's second-largest producer, has caused price spikes.

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