Turkey hosts Nato guests after months of anti-western barbs

Turkey will this week welcome Nato foreign ministers to the resort town of Antalya after a sustained blast of anti-western rhetoric that has heightened strains over the country's place in the alliance.

Among other recent barbs, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has attributed US strikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, to oil greed and fulminated over alleged foreign plots to reconquer his country.

The verbal jabs have been made worse by alleged Turkish foot-dragging in efforts to combat Isis, both in terms of military aid provided to the coalition against the jihadi group and Ankara's patchy record policing its borders against flows of arms and fighters.

Yet for all the friction, Ankara has been working behind the scenes to narrow differences, say diplomats and analysts. The question facing Turkey's Nato partners as they gather for the meeting, which begins on Wednesday, is which trend will prevail: bellicose rhetoric or closer co-operation?

"Dialogue between Turkish and American officials in diplomacy, defence, law enforcement and intelligence matters has remained relatively consistently close and productive," says Francis Ricciardone, a former US ambassador now at the Atlantic Council.

"Nonetheless, it would be a mistake not to take President Erdogan's words absolutely seriously . . . This is a man who speaks from the heart [and] rhetoric matters, especially in a democracy."

Explanations for Mr Erdogan's increasingly fierce denunciation of the country's traditional allies vary. They include a highly charged pre-election atmosphere; an attempt by Ankara to lead a Middle East in flux and to bond with Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood; a slide in western influence in the wake of the Iraq war; and Ankara's stalled EU membership talks.

But there is broad agreement that a permanent rift between Ankara and other Nato states would be momentous, given the country's geopolitical position, its sizeable economy and its longstanding record as one of the region's few democracies.

A Turkish official insisted Ankara's pro-EU and Nato orientation had not changed, even as he dismissed international criticism of the country as a "Turkey-bashing campaign abroad".

One key sign of co-operation has come on one of the most urgent issues for Turkey's EU partners: Ankara has ratcheted up deportations of so-called foreign fighters at airports and within the country. There were about 200 such deportations in the first three months of this year compared with just over 500 for all of 2014, according to Turkish officials.

The rise appears due to improved information supplied by other countries about suspected jihadis - and possibly an increase in attempts to cross Turkish territory. But western diplomats say Turkey has also toughened its stance after an Isis-connected suicide bomber blew herself up in the heart of Istanbul's tourist district in January. Ankara was also rocked by widespread publicity about three teenage British girls who travelled through Turkey to become "jihadi brides" in Isis-held territory in Syria.

"On the counter-terrorism and security side, which has always been hard to engage on, there probably has been during the past few months growing realisation that there is a problem, and that it is a problem for them as well," said one senior European diplomat.

Meanwhile, Turkey may have also begun to shift on one of the US's most central demands: permission to fly armed drones from bases in Turkish territory to strike against Isis.

According one person briefed on the conversations, Ankara has been holding secretive talks with Washington and already agreed in principle to permit such strikes - one reason US President Barack Obama recently decided not to risk a Turkish backlash by labelling the Ottoman era massacre of Armenians a genocide.

Turkey has also put off concluding a 2013 provisional decision to buy a $3bn-plus missile defence system from China that would be non-Nato compatible. Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey, said such a deal would be "a bombshell" that would leave a gap in coverage and force the alliance to rethink the whole architecture of missile defence.

Many diplomats now expect Turkey to opt for a rival Franco-Italian system.

"Given Erdogan's hegemony over the political system it would be naive to think these substantive initiatives are happening despite him," said Sinan Ulgen at Carnegie Europe.

He dismissed Mr Erdogan's attacks on the west as "pre-electoral rhetoric" ahead of the June 7 general elections in which the president is seeking a big ruling party majority to change the constitution and boost his own powers.

Still, some observers caution that Turkey's political tensions are unlikely to relent - and worry that its divergence with the west may run much deeper than mere rhetoric. Of particular concern are its alleged ties to jihadi fighters in Syria and Libya.

"As a foreigner I have learnt to be careful with analysis that is more wishful thinking than hard political reality," said Mr Pierini.

The European diplomat said Turkey's greater readiness to address Isis as a threat was "not a firm foundation" for partnership given "repeated anti-western rhetoric and conspiracy theories [and] growing authoritarianism".

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