Pollsters and pundits make the wrong call on UK election

With the notable exception of Scotland and the Scottish National party landslide, the pollsters were wrong about the 2015 UK election and so were most of the pundits.

The Conservatives executed ruthlessly Aussie campaign strategist Lynton Crosby's plan: focus on a few dozen marginals, squeeze the Liberal Democrats until the pips squeak and destroy Ed Miliband's credibility as an alternative prime minister.

Labour's defeat is a stunning rebuff to Mr Miliband's decision to tilt left and abandon the Blairist centre ground. He was dignified in the face of appalling personal attacks, but dignity does not win elections. Voters simply did not credit Labour with economic competence. They also worried desperately about the prospect of a de facto Labour alliance with the SNP.

Prepare for a new generation of Labour politicians assuming power in opposition - and I do not mean the prince across the water, David Miliband. His moment may well have passed.

The Lib Dems under Nick Clegg have been wiped out, punished for playing a responsible role in a coalition government committed to restoring the public finances. Mr Clegg will surely go.

Today, the Conservatives have good reason to celebrate. Despite the absence of the "feel good factor", the Tories surely benefited from an economy that has created more than 2m jobs in the lifetime of the coalition and is growing more strongly than most of western Europe.

The other way to look at the election - especially in the light of the strong showing for the UK Independence party, which did not translate into Westminister seats - is nationalism playing a winning hand. England in effect voted against the SNP - and the Tories were the chief beneficiaries.

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A new deal to devolve more powers to Scotland is inevitable, and it will be more generous than anyone anticipated a year ago. The SNP's near monopoly on power north of the Tweed does not yet spell the break-up of the UK - nor the prospect of another referendum on Scottish independence. But the terms of Devo Max squared will be fiendishly difficult to agree upon.

As for Europe, Mr Cameron knows his own demands for a new deal have necessary limits, set largely in Berlin. Yet the prime minister has promised a referendum based on EU treaty changes and his restive backbenchers expect no less.

The clarity of the Tory victory is therefore misleading. The UK is heading into a period of considerable political uncertainty. Shades of John Major in 1992?

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