Tories point to exit poll lead as vindication of campaign strategy

David Cameron looked to be heading towards a "handsome victory" on as the first exit poll from the 2015 election put the prime minister's Conservative party just a few seats short of an effective majority.

Michael Gove, the chief whip, insisted Mr Cameron would have "considerable authority" to remain prime minister if the exit poll putting the Tories on 316 seats was correct.

"We haven't had an incumbent government increase its majority like this since 1983 and it would be an unprecedented vote of confidence in David Cameron's leadership," Mr Gove said. "If this is correct . . . he has clearly won."

The exit poll on Thursday gave the Conservatives a far bigger lead over Labour than pollsters had predicted. The Tories had been expected to garner 280-290 seats, while Labour was expected to gain 260-270 seats. The exit poll put Labour on 239.

Conservative figures were delighted by the exit poll, which suggested the party could secure an advance on its seat numbers from 2010, when Mr Cameron won 307 seats and was forced to go into coalition with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats to form a government.

The first Conservative hold of the night in Swindon South appeared to confirm the exit poll, with a 4.3 per cent swing to the Tory incumbent.

With the result still pointing to a hung parliament, the Conservatives were quick to stake their claim to Downing Street.

The leadership wants to frame the result as a "legitimacy" issue and will insist that Ed Miliband cannot be prime minister if he is well behind the Tories - the exit poll puts Labour behind by 77 seats - regardless of his ability to put together a workable majority in the House of Commons.

"If this is the result, it is a disaster for Ed Miliband. He will have no legitimacy to run a government," said one senior Conservative.

If proved correct, the result would be a vindication of Lynton Crosby's strategy to run a campaign hooked on two themes: economic competence and David Cameron's leadership.

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"This is at the top end of expectations," said Mr Gove on the back of the exit poll result. "But my view is that we had very good candidates fighting what has been a very good campaign and we would do well."

Conservative figures said internal party polling had showed a better performance in marginal seats than the national polls had suggested - but admitted that the swing had been extremely late.

"Shy Tories? A lot of people hadn't made up their minds, but what was always in our favour was that Cameron massively outperformed Ed Miliband," said one senior party figure.

Ben Wallace, Conservative MP for Wyre & Preston, told the Financial Times he was not surprised by the exit poll given that Labour supporters he had canvassed in recent weeks had seemed unconvinced by Ed Miliband.

"The north doesn't take kindly to Hampstead Liberals who don't know the real world," he said, referring to where the Labour leader grew up and now lives.

Mr Gove said it was too early to talk about potential post-election deals, but said if the exit poll proved right, "tomorrow the prime minister will outline the basis on which we can go forward with a secure and stable government in the national interest".

The prime minister needs to win 323 seats to have an effective majority in the House of Commons.

If the Conservatives do win 316 seats, it could turn to the Lib Dems to form a coalition or look to the Democratic Unionist party - or both. The Lib Dems are predicated to take just 10 seats according to the exit poll, with the DUP on eight.

Sammy Wilson of the DUP said he would be willing to do a deal with the Conservatives "at a price".

If Mr Cameron ends up close to the winning line, he could try to govern as a minority administration. It is unlikely that all the other parties in the Commons would united to defeat him, while a Tory-only administration is likely to be the preferred option for his backbenchers.

Mr Cameron must secure support for any deal from his Conservative backbenchers. The executive of the backbench 1922 committee, the body representing Tory MPs, will hold a teleconference call on Friday morning to discuss the result and conditions for supporting a second coalition before convening a meeting of the parliamentary party on Monday.

Meanwhile Conservatives claimed that they might win the seat of South Thanet, the constituency being contested by Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence party, after a concerted Tory "decapitation" strategy in the Kent seat.

The exit poll predicted that Ukip would win only two seats, a result which would confirm that the party has failed to translate its support into many victories under the first-past-the-post system.

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