Putin and Xi: not quite the allies they seem

A friend in need is a friend indeed. But what sort of a friend is China really to Russia? Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, who will welcome President Xi Jinping to Moscow on Friday, would like to think that an evermore powerful Beijing is the perfect antidote to western antagonism. On the surface, the omens are good. Mr Xi will be the most prominent world leader to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade, which marks the 70th anniversary of the defeat of the Nazis by the Soviet Union.

Leaders of the US, the UK, Germany and France are boycotting the event in protest at Russia's annexation of Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine. Mr Putin is likely to use their absence to stir up Russia's sense of victimhood and nationalist outrage. The presence of Mr Xi, whose Communist party also uses history as a nationalist tool, will be a big plus.

In other ways, too, an isolated Russia, hit by western sanctions, and a resurgent China, seem perfect bedfellows. Since Russia hosted the annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Vladivostok in 2012, it has pursued a policy of pivoting to Asia as a hedge against Europe. China, the world's top energy consumer, and Russia, the largest energy exporter, last year concluded multiyear gas deals potentially worth $400bn.

Mr Putin may hope that such arrangements can help shield Russia from western sanctions. Yet, in his heart of hearts, he must know that Beijing is not going to do Moscow any favours. Beneath the inevitable show of camaraderie during Mr Xi's visit, the two countries remain deeply suspicious of each other.

There are several reasons for this. Chinese state-owned companies have shown little appetite for signing anything but hard commercial deals. Mr Putin, perhaps revealing his country's desperation, offered state-owned China National Petroleum Corp the chance to invest in Vankor, one of Russia's most prized oilfields. Yet negotiations have become bogged down over price. Similarly, the much-trumpeted gas deals signed between Gazprom and CNPC last year have not progressed as planned. The two have bickered over the interest payment on a potential $25bn Chinese loan to help Russia to build a pipeline.

Russia remains suspicious of Chinese intentions in sparsely populated Siberia, particularly as Beijing emphasises economic development in its western regions. Indeed, China and Russia remain as much strategic competitors as they are strategic partners. That is particularly true in Central Asia, a region that Mr Putin believes is still vital to Russia's interests. China has been lavishing money and attention on the resource-rich region. Beijing's "one belt, one road" policy, part of which aims to reconstruct the old Silk Road through Central Asia to Europe and north Africa, is a direct challenge to Moscow's influence. If successful, it would give Central Asian states alternative export markets, reducing their dependence on Russia.

For all these reasons, the west does not need to fret too much about driving China and Russia into each other's arms. Russia is clearly the junior partner and the differences between the two are as great as the forces that unite them. In one respect, though, their leaders do see eye to eye. Mr Putin and Mr Xi are both suspicious of what they regard as western democratic evangelism. Friendship between the two countries could exacerbate this view and make both leaders more defensive and harder for other nations to deal with. The west should be careful not to stoke antagonism in a way that pushes the two countries closer.

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