Netanyahu's irredentist coalition will not last

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has just formed his fourth government, arguably the most rightwing in Israel's history. That is not just because of its make-up - there is a centre-right grouping alongside the ultra-right and religious fundamentalists. It is in large part because of the way it came about.

In March's election campaign, Mr Netanyahu's Likud party and its main challenger, a centre-left coalition built around the Labour party, were so close in the polls that the prime minister opted for scorched earth tactics to harvest votes from his even more rightwing rivals. It worked - at a cost.

The prime minister pledged there would be no independent Palestinian state alongside Israel while he was in charge, and vowed to expand Israeli settlement in the occupied territories. He also made inflammatory remarks about the Palestinian Arab minority within Israel's borders, saying they were voting "in droves" as part of an international conspiracy to oust him.

There is no doubt he was sincere in ripping up the two-states blueprint that has long been the preferred international solution to the Palestinian question, pursued episodically by the US and Europe, Israel's principal allies. Mr Netanyahu has only ever grudgingly accepted the idea of a Palestinian state, while expanding Israel's occupation of the land on which it could be built. His remarks on Israel's Arabs, appearing to confirm their status as second-class citizens, were not just divisive but racist. His post-election attempts to row back were not credible.

His credibility with erstwhile allies on the right he outflanked also evaporated. Mr Netanyahu therefore first signed up the centre-right Kulanu party of Moshe Kahlon, the future finance minister who had already split from Likud, and Shas and United Torah Judaism. These two ultra-Orthodox parties are intent on reversing reforms by the last Netanyahu government to cut state subsidies to their religious schools and end their exemption from military service.

Of the two main ultra-right factions, Yisrael Beiteinu dropped out of the coalition amid a storm of vituperation against Mr Netanyahu from its combustible leader, former foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman. His absence is no loss to Israel. But it meant that Jewish Home, a radical party that wants to annex big chunks of the occupied West Bank, was able to demand sensitive portfolios for joining the government.

Few expect this government of the religious and irredentist right to last very long. It has a majority of one seat and its ranks are already fracturing, even before it takes office. Many Israelis, moreover, will not take kindly to attempts by the far right to roll back civil liberties or any reopening of Israel's culture wars by the religious right. There is, furthermore, still a majority in the Knesset that favours a negotiated diplomatic solution to Palestinian demands for a state. Influential veterans in Israel's security establishment have also denounced Mr Netanyahu's policies for dividing Israel and endangering its security alliances, above all with the US.

Israel's allies, therefore, should be robust in continuing to insist on a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem. Rather than reflexively urging a resumption of peace talks Mr Netanyahu has killed stone dead, the US and Europeans should support a resolution to this effect at the UN Security Council - and a timeframe for negotiations on a viable state. Change will come in Israel when its citizens come to understand that Mr Netanyahu's recklessness is isolating them from their friends.

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