Troubles at sea test Thai junta's command

Thailand's ruling generals have dealt effectively with opposition to their near year-old takeover. But they are grappling with unexpected threats to their authority - one of which is fish.

The junta is trying to head off an EU ban on some imported Thai seafood later this year, the result of poor controls in an industry blighted by abuses including forced labour.

The "yellow card" fisheries warning from Brussels late last month came on the heels of curbs imposed by China, Japan and South Korea on Thai airlines because of concerns over safety standards at the country's civil aviation authority.

Meanwhile, the discovery last week of a mass grave at a suspected human trafficking camp in the south of the country highlights how Thailand has become a regional hub for people smuggling.

The financial front has brought the generals little relief: they have flailed on big tax reforms, further damaging confidence in the stalling economy.

The woes hammer home two worrying trends. One is a longstanding institutional decay in Bangkok that is now biting the country's new rulers and threatening the standing of the Southeast Asian economy as a regional centre and international player.

The other hitch: the problems are big but also complex and technical, demanding the kind of analytically sound yet bold policy making at which army-dominated regimes are notoriously bad.

"There is a fundamental governance problem in Thailand," says Phil Robertson, deputy Asia director of Human Rights Watch. "It's highly reactive government - and, when you add the military spine, it becomes conservative reactive government."

Since the EU issued its warning over fishing fleet problems - which were first publicised years ago - the Thai commerce ministry has been scrabbling together a delegation to tour Europe to reassure importers that an annual flow of fisheries products estimated at between $600m and $900m is not about to be drastically cut.

A new law giving the Thai government more supervisory powers over the fishing industry finally popped up in the Royal Gazette last week, although analysts say its effectiveness will depend on detailed regulations still to come.

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None of these problems has emerged overnight. They have appeared over time during an era of unstable governments, plagued by sometimes violent class-based conflicts, corruption claims and counter-claims, and military interference in politics.

Indicators of governance on the slide have included last year's US government decision to downgrade Thailand to a group of countries alleged to be the world's most lax in tackling human trafficking. Thailand also slipped back in Transparency International's annual index of countries ranked by perceived levels of corruption, from number 59 of 159 in 2005 to number 102 of 177 in 2013.

But if Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha's junta is being swamped partly by a mess it inherited, it is also facing criticism for hasty orders and about-turns. These range from an abortive immigration crackdown that sent hundreds of thousands of foreign workers temporarily fleeing in the first few weeks after last May's coup, to its decision to shelve a much-trumpeted new property tax.

The fiscal policy reversal in March appeared to surprise even Sommai Phasee, the civilian finance minister, although he has insisted he did not feel undermined. "My case is not the first case," Mr Sommai joked in an interview, referring to Gen Prayuth's reputation for making snap decisions. "I understand he is a very active man, and he [wants everything] to go smoothly and fast."

Others saw the episode as indicative of disjointed and erratic government. Even pro-establishment newspaper The Nation has questioned the junta's competence. Diplomats have noted how some ministries have appeared to work on parallel tracks, with limited communication between civil servants working up policies and military officers developing separate plans.

As the generals promise a crackdown on human trafficking, and lobby internationally for Thailand's fish and aircraft to be spared, their supporters clutch the time-honoured argument for why military masters should make good troubleshooters. They can deal quickly with difficulties - and make trains run on time - because they do not have to worry about the niceties of procedure, politics, or even the rule of law.

"Once they want to solve the problem, it's faster," argues a government official wrestling with one of the current crises. "In six months, three months, everything is ready."

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