Small parties on Westminster fringe ready to move centre stage

With his characteristic chutzpah, George Galloway on Tuesday declared that his one-man Respect party would probably have the "casting vote in the next parliament" as the former Labour MP was asked to assess the post-election landscape.

While his premonition might be somewhat overdone, what is in little doubt is that the small parties and independent MPs that have stood on the fringes of Westminster politics could move centre stage in such a tight race - to the detriment of the Tories.

There were a dozen seats held by the small parties or independents in the last parliament and two-thirds of those have ruled out any sort of deal with the Conservatives.

Plaid Cymru (three seats), the Social Democratic & Labour party (three seats), the Green party (one seat) and Respect (one seat) have indicated that they are prepared to work with Labour to "end Tory rule" in the event of a hung parliament.

Lady Sylvia Hermon, who is now an independent MP having resigned from the Ulster Unionist party before the last election, is a little more circumspect. She says she will not support a Tory government that relied on the UK Independence party for support. She has also said she will not support a Labour government that relied on the Scottish National party.

The Alliance party MP Naomi Long, in a very tight race with the Democratic Unionist party in East Belfast, has not indicated which way its support would go in the event of a hung parliament. But the party is very liberal and pro-Europe and would be more likely to support Labour than the Tories.

Only Ukip is prepared to back a Conservative-led coalition, on the proviso that there is a referendum on membership of the EU at the earliest possible date.

Polls suggest the Conservative and Labour parties are going to fall short of an overall majority - current FT seat projection puts the Tories on 281 and Labour on 267. In this scenario, the support of smaller parties is crucial to secure a Commons majority of 323 seats.

The Liberal Democrats and the DUP, the voice of Ulster loyalism, are prepared to work with either side: the SNP - which is on track to secure 51 of Scotland's 59 seats - has vowed to use its power to vote down a Conservative government and try to install a Labour one.

On the FT's seat projection, a tie-up between the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the DUP still puts David Cameron three seats short of an overall majority. In that scenario, Mr Galloway's claim of having a pivotal role in the next parliament does not look quite so preposterous.

© The Financial Times Limited 2015. All rights reserved.
FT and Financial Times are trademarks of the Financial Times Ltd.
Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in any way.
Euro2day.gr is solely responsible for providing this translation and the Financial Times Limited does not accept any liability for the accuracy or quality of the translation