The campaign ends, so to the bazaar of a hung parliament

The UK election campaign is almost over and the political bazaar of a hung parliament is about to begin. Barring a big late shift in the polls, neither David Cameron nor Ed Miliband is expected to win a majority.

If Labour wins the most seats, things would be relatively simple. Mr Miliband, the party leader, would seek to form a minority government and govern with the informal support of the Scottish National party, perhaps with Liberal Democrat help.

However, most polls suggest the more likely outcome is that Mr Cameron will finish with the largest number of seats - projections suggest somewhere near 290 - but well short of a majority. What would happen then?

May 8: Mr Cameron's allies expect he would return to Downing Street and declare victory on the basis that the Conservatives were the biggest party. Coalition talks with the Liberal Democrats could start within hours.

Under the rules signed off by Mr Cameron and laid down in the Cabinet Manual (the document that explains how the government should operate) the incumbent prime minister has to resign only in the circumstances set out in the much pored-over paragraph 2.12.

It says: "An incumbent government is entitled to wait until the new parliament has met to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons, but is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative."

Mr Cameron's allies expect the prime minister to push ahead with preparations for his Queen's Speech legislative programme, even if he is not sure he can win a majority of 323 seats in the 650-seat Commons chamber - the number being lower because Sinn Fein MPs do not take their 5 seats.

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May 9-10: If Mr Cameron has won the most seats, he is likely to begin talks with the Lib Dems and others to try to assemble support for his Queen's Speech. In parallel, Mr Cameron would also have to convince his own MPs of the desirability of a new Con-Lib coalition.

Assuming Mr Miliband is still within touching distance of power - with the expected informal support of perhaps 45-50 SNP MPs - his job will be to stay in the game as a prime minister-in-waiting and prepare his party and potential allies to vote down a Conservative Queen's Speech.

May 11-18: Mr Cameron would use his incumbency and occupancy of Number 10 to present the country with an image of continuity and stability - even if he has yet to establish whether he can command a majority.

George Osborne is planning to travel to Brussels on Tuesday for the latest talks on the Greek debt crisis: he will take the chance to reinforce his claim that the global economy is fragile and the UK cannot risk a change of government.

Coalition talks with the Lib Dems could be wrapped up this week. David Laws, a key Lib Dem negotiator, says a week is long enough to secure a deal. But MPs in both parties would have to approve it.

Nick Clegg has said he would talk exclusively to the leader of the biggest party. But if talks stall - or if the coalition terms on offer are not acceptable - he could begin parallel talks with Labour.

May 18: Scheduled return of parliament. Newly elected MPs are sworn in and elect the Speaker, who presides over debates and decides which MPs may speak. In practice, many will already have returned to Westminster to take part in the dealmaking and to keep any eye on what their leaders are negotiating.

May 27: Scheduled date for the state opening of parliament, although Mr Cameron could advise the Queen to bring it forward, to end political uncertainty. The Queen will read out the government's legislative plan and MPs will begin a week of debates on its content.

Early June: The crucial test. Almost a month after the election, MPs would finally vote on the Queen's Speech. If Mr Cameron fails to command a majority - possibly accompanied by a vote of no-confidence - he would almost certainly resign immediately.

<>Labour officials say the party would vote against a Conservative Queen's Speech in any circumstances and the SNP has said the same. If Labour and the SNP, plus other smaller parties such as Plaid Cymru and the Greens, can muster 324 votes or so, Mr Cameron would be finished.

Mr Miliband would then have a chance to present his own legislative programme - constitutional experts say the Queen would not have to return to Westminster to present it - and then test his authority in the Commons.

Victory would establish Mr Miliband as prime minister. Defeat would almost certainly trigger a second general election, probably in the autumn.

The Fixed Term Parliament Act of 2011 is a potential complication. This requires a two-thirds Commons majority to trigger a dissolution of parliament - implying that the Conservatives and Labour would have to agree at the same time it was in their interest to have another election.

In practice, if neither Mr Cameron nor Mr Miliband were able to command a majority, constitutional experts say the parties would draw the conclusion that another election was unavoidable.

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