Past comes back to haunt Latin American leaders

Corruption, caudillos and conflict: this year is shaping up to offer us a Latin America straight from central casting. There is a government graft scandal in Guatemala; a savvy political operator seeks potentially indefinite re-election in Honduras; while violence rages in El Salvador nearly a quarter-century after the end of the country's civil war.

May Day in Guatemala was marked by a (second) big demonstration against the government of Otto Perez Molina, which has been hit by a corruption scandal known as "The Line" after the phone number given to importers seeking to evade customs duties in exchange for bribes. The issue looks set to dominate the run-up to elections in September.

Demonstrators in Guatemala, both on the streets and via social media, have demanded the resignation of the president, as well as that of his deputy, Roxana Baldetti. The latter's private secretary is alleged to have been one of The Line's ringleaders and is now on the run with a warrant out for his arrest. If caught, he would join 21 people already arrested, including the head of the country's tax agency.

"Fired. Your bosses, the Guatemalan people, notify you that, as of this moment, we no longer need your inefficient and pathetic services," read a sign held by protesters last month. Another big demonstration is scheduled for May 16.

Will these protests achieve their aim? Maybe not, if Mexico is anything to go by. Despite widespread anger and many marches, the probable murder last year of 43 students with the connivance of corrupt police officers is no longer front-page news in Mexico. President Enrique Pena Nieto's government may be cautiously allowing itself to exhale.

Are officials in Honduras also convinced that time heals all wounds? Six years ago, Manuel Zelaya was bundled out of bed - and out of the presidency - in a military-led coup triggered by his drive to change the constitution so it would allow presidential re-election. Now some of the officials who backed that coup have done a U-turn and the Supreme Court last month struck down the constitutional re-election ban.

It is a move that worries some observers. Eurasia Group, a political consultancy, notes: "[President Juan Orlando Hernandez] already controls the courts, the attorney-general, and wields significant influence over congress. Re-election - particularly a potential indefinite re-election - will further empower the executive and therefore bodes poorly for both the strength and transparency of the country's already weak institutions."

Beefing up institutions - in this case, public security - is, however, the plan of El Salvador's President Salvador Sanchez Ceren, a former Marxist guerrilla. Faced with a collapsed truce between the country's two powerful "mara" - criminal gangs - and after more than 480 murders in March, making it the country's deadliest month for a decade, the president has set up four elite battalions within the police and army to counter violence with force.

El Salvador is braced for more bloodshed - something that Mexico can also relate to. The failed "war on drugs" of Mr Pena Nieto's predecessor, Felipe Calderon, cost as many as 100,000 lives. Although the number of homicides declined in 2014 for the third straight year, according to a new report by the University of San Diego's Justice in Mexico programme, the situation is far from tamed. On May Day, the Jalisco New Generation cartel, currently considered Mexico's most dangerous, forced down an army helicopter; killing five soldiers and triggering a wave of violence.

There is no one-size-fits-all solution for the crime and corruption plaguing Mexico and Central America. But Mexico's recent scandals have woken the government up to the need to strengthen its institutions.

Congress has just passed constitutional reforms to establish a new anti-corruption "system" intended to segue with judicial reforms due to take force next year and there are plans - albeit still embryonic - to overhaul Mexico's often inept or corrupt police.

Mexico is heading in the right direction, even if progress is at "an elephant's pace", says Marco Fernandez, a professor at Tecnologico de Monterrey and a researcher at the think-tank Mexico Evalua. Its neighbours should follow its lead.

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