Unionists struggle to organise tactical voting against SNP

If there was anywhere in Scotland where opponents of independence might be expected to unite against the Scottish National party, it would be the northeast constituency of Gordon.

This swath of mostly prosperous Aberdeenshire rejected independence by a margin of around 60-40 in the referendum orchestrated last year by the SNP's candidate, former party leader and Scottish first minister Alex Salmond.

That makes Gordon a test of the power of pro-union tactical voting to stem a surge in SNP support that polls suggest will give the Nationalists most of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats. The signs so far are that its impact will be limited.

Christine Jardine, Liberal Democrat candidate, says Mr Salmond's decision to stand in Gordon "reawakened" pro-union referendum alliances.

"He's probably the best recruiting sergeant and fundraiser we could have had," says Ms Jardine, whose Lib Dem predecessor held the seat with a 14-percentage point margin in 2010. "[Mr Salmond] was the failed flag-bearer for independence and people here didn't want that and they still don't want that."

Ms Jardine has made the union a central theme of her campaign, with leaflets proclaiming the seat a "Two-horse race" and that "Only the Lib Dems can stop the SNP here".

Ms Jardine's credentials as pro-union champion have been enhanced by a January poll by Tory peer Lord Ashcroft that found the Lib Dems trailing the SNP in Gordon but well ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.

And the Lib Dem candidate's efforts are backed by pro-union tactical voting groups, whose members fear that SNP electoral success will pave the way for future independence.

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Some voters are receptive. "I haven't voted Lib Dem in the past, but I'm thinking to vote for them now mainly because they seem to have the best chance of competing with the SNP," says Steve Hargreaves, an oil rig safety expert who moved to Gordon this year.

Pollsters say there are some signs that pro-union tactical voting could have an impact. The SNP lead over Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy in East Renfrewshire narrowed from nine points to three in a month, largely because of Tory voters shifting to Labour, according to Ashcroft surveys.

Yet analysts say tactical voting is likely to thwart the SNP in only a few seats. Even Mr Lakin admits the impact will be limited. "I'm not going to claim it's going to make a massive difference," he says.

In Gordon there is no prospect of anti-independence unity. Ms Jardine's pro-union party rivals sharply dismiss suggestions that their supporters should temporarily switch loyalties. Labour candidate Braden Davy says if anyone is voting tactically they should be casting their ballots for his party "to get rid of the Tories".

Campaigning in Bridge of Don, north of Aberdeen, Conservative candidate Colin Clark says Lib Dems' support has been "seeping away" and the party is "disingenuous" to suggest it has even a chance of beating Mr Salmond.

Mr Clark suggests local electoral arithmetic makes SNP victory inevitable and rather than rally behind Ms Jardine, his focus is on next year's Scottish election, saying a solid Tory turnout on Thursday would be a good start for the campaign to win more seats in the parliament in Edinburgh.

"This is really setting the groundwork for Holyrood," Mr Clark says. "We are really out to make sure that people realise that the Conservatives are the only unionist party on the way up."

Bookies appear confident that Mr Salmond will prevail - putting the former first minister at up to 10-1 on to win - and the candidate himself is relaxed and upbeat in an interview at the Dairy Tearoom in the constituency town of Inverurie.

"There will be some tactical voting, but the Tories in the northeast are not really tactical voting types," he says.

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