Rivera hails 'new era' in Spain as Ciudadanos support surges

Spain's political scene used to be like a boxing match between two heavyweight parties. Now, it looks more like one of those fights spinning out of control, with intruders storming the ring, fists flying everywhere and no clear idea as to how it all ends.

For the moment, though, the man landing the heaviest punches seems to be Albert Rivera, the youthful leader of the fast-rising Ciudadanos party. Mr Rivera heads a centrist movement that was founded in Catalonia nine years ago, mainly as a platform to combat the region's independence movement. In recent months, however, it has drawn voters from all over the country. According to one recent poll, Ciudadanos has already eclipsed Podemos, the other brash new entrant into Spanish politics, and could win as much as 20 per cent of the vote in a general election due at the end of the year.

Sitting in his humble basement office in the Catalan parliament, Mr Rivera says he has no doubt that Spain is experiencing the dawn of a "new political era". The old two-party system, he says, is giving way to a four-way contest between the two established forces, the ruling Popular party and the centre-left Socialists, and the two newcomers. The era of absolute majorities and monolithic governments is over - the time of shifting alliances and cross-party deals has come.

"We may be heading for a situation that was unthinkable until recently," Mr Rivera, 35, says in an interview with the Financial Times. "There might be reforms that require the support of three of even four parties. Those negotiations will be very tough. But I am not afraid of them."

Ciudadanos' sudden rise from regional minority party to national contender has invited obvious comparisons with Podemos, the anti-establishment party led by Pablo Iglesias. Both newcomers are trying to capitalise on voter frustration with Spain's established parties, whose standing has been marred by the crisis and a string of corruption scandals.

Mr Rivera says he shares much of the political diagnosis offered by Podemos, but not its prescription. "The solutions that Podemos proposes are obsolete. They stand for a very interventionist model, for more state control. They blame the system - we blame the people who have corrupted the system."

If voters are now shifting from Podemos to Ciudadanos - as polls appear to suggest - it is because the country has moved on, says Mr Rivera. "Podemos channels peoples' anger - and people are very angry. But I think what is happening now is that people are saying: OK, I am angry, but now let's get to work. People have moved on from simple anger."

Mr Rivera is hoping to capture the changing mood by appealing to voters' heads, not hearts. The party has released a battery of detailed reform proposals, with a particular emphasis on the tax system and the labour market. The Ciudadanos programme, developed by a team that includes Luis Garicano from the London School of Economics, reflects the party's liberal economic stance: it calls for a sharp reduction in income and corporate tax, but seeks to balance the cuts by eliminating tax loopholes and deductions.

The party also wants to simplify Spain's much-criticised system of value added tax, a move that would include raising VAT on basic goods such as bread and milk (while lowering overall rates). It is the kind of proposal that delights economists and think-tankers - but leaves plenty of electoral ammunition in the hands of Mr Rivera's opponents.

"The liberal label has never been well explained in Spain," he says. "People think that a liberal vision of the economy is incompatible with social sensitivity. I think they are perfectly complementary. I don't want a Spain without public education, a public health system and public pensions. But neither do I want a Spain where the economy is dominated by state intervention and monopolies."

Analysts say the rise of Ciudadanos appears to have checked the Podemos surge, as well as tentative signs of Socialist revival. The party poses a far bigger threat, however, to Mariano Rajoy and the ruling PP. Until recently, Spain's prime minister had reason to hope that the trend towards political fragmentation was a problem only for the left. Now, for the first time in decades, centre-right voters have a genuine alternative.

Spain's accelerating economic growth rate will not be enough to save the Rajoy government, argues Mr Rivera: "The problem of Spain is not the state of our gross domestic product - it is the state of the middle class. GDP is also growing a lot in Saudi Arabia," he says.

Current polls suggest that no single party will win more than a quarter of the vote - an outcome that could leave Mr Rivera in the role of kingmaker. He insists, however, that Ciudadanos will not serve as junior party in a coalition government, and rules himself out for the position of deputy prime minister. Instead, he calls for ad hoc coalitions on different issues, no matter who comes out on top in the election. "Maybe we will have one ally for economic themes, another one for social issues, a third for democratic issues, and everyone together if we face an international issue of state," he says.

For many Spaniards, and not a few foreign investors, the idea that the country stands on the cusp of a shifting and instable new era is a cause for concern. Mr Rivera, however, sees a chance to revitalise the country's democracy. "A different Spain is coming," he says.

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