Nepal earthquake: This seismic tragedy need not happen again

All too often when a natural disaster strikes in the developing world, experts describe it as a tragedy waiting to happen. This lament has echoed around the world as the death toll from the Nepal earthquake rises towards 7,000. The region south of the Himalayas is seismically one of the world's most active as the Indian tectonic plate pushes up against Eurasia, yet buildings have proliferated with little thought given to quake resistance.

The short-term response to the disaster has to focus on immediate medical and humanitarian assistance; mountainous Nepal particularly needs more helicopters to reach devastated villages inaccessible with land transport. In the longer term the priority must be to ensure that the reconstruction is carried out with future resilience in mind. Accurate forecasting of specific earthquakes remains an elusive scientific dream. But we can predict confidently that Nepal will suffer another strong quake at some point in the next few decades. Last Saturday's event did not release all the pent-up seismic strain in the region and more will build up as tectonic forces continue to push India up against China at a rate of about 4cm a year.

Another tragedy is inevitable if Nepal's homes, shops and offices are rebuilt from the same materials and in the same way as their collapsed predecessors. There are better ways of doing things, which will not add much to the cost or time required for reconstruction. Although desperate people do not want to delay securing shelter above their heads, the immediate aftermath of an earthquake is a good opportunity to promote resilience because ruins are a stark reminder of the consequences of not being prepared.

A drive to build resilience into Nepal's reconstruction would not be starting from scratch. The country has a National Society for Earthquake Technology, which has been working for years to raise awareness of the risks and improve building standards. Some western organisations have been active there too, including GeoHazards International and Earthquakes Without Frontiers.

But recent achievements, for instance retrofitting some schools to make them less hazardous, are small compared with the effort required now. With international assistance on an appropriate scale, Nepal could become a symbol of earthquake resilience in the developing world.

Although some modern technology would help, traditional methods can produce quake-resistant buildings, if masons are trained to use them properly and avoid risky short-cuts. After all, the ancient Pashupatinath Temple in Kathmandu has survived unscathed more than 1,000 years of earthquakes, including Saturday's, thanks to its sturdy construction with brick walls well bonded to a strong roof.

Nepal cannot afford and does not need the sophisticated shock absorbers on which tall buildings in Japan and California rest. But the country would benefit from donations of reinforcing steel and tools for using it in public buildings such as hospitals and schools, as part of the western aid programme. Homes can have masonry or mortar walls strengthened with wood or bamboo instead of steel.

Chile has become a model for resilience among middle income countries, sustaining remarkably few casualties in the face of exceptionally powerful earthquakes over recent decades. Though Nepal is considerably poorer, with internal determination and sufficient help from the outside world it too could turn this tragedy into hope for a safer seismic future. The victims of the quake deserve no less.

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