Life expectancy in England and Wales beat official forecasts

Δημοσιεύθηκε: 30 Απριλίου 2015 - 12:28

The life expectancy of men in England and Wales is catching up with that of women, and both are longer than official forecasts, research published in the Lancet has found.

The figures mean greater resources will be needed "to provide improved health and social services and pensions for elderly people", conclude the researchers from Imperial College, London.

But, if true, the research will also provide opportunities for companies focused on the "silver pound". Research from the Office of National Statistics shows that pensioners' median income is rising faster than that of working aged people, even though it is still about a third lower.

By 2030 men will be living, on average, 85.7 years and women 87.6 years. In 1981 women were living six years longer than men.

Men will be living 2.4 years longer than official estimates from the ONS and women a year longer.

There is also a slight growing divergence between the areas where people are living the longest and shortest, with the gap for men growing from 8.2 years in 2012 to 8.4 years in 2030.

The research is based on data from 175 local authorities. While it is not as comprehensive as the ONS figures, it puts greater emphasis on changes over the past few years and is more optimistic.

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>Men and women live the longest in the City of London, but this has such a small population that, Professor Majid Ezzati, one of the lead researchers, said it was more representative to exclude the area. Scotland was not included because the data were not as detailed, he said.

In 2012 men lived longest in South Cambridge and East Dorset, at 83.4 and 82.9 years respectively, while they lived shortest in Blackpool and Manchester, at 75.2 years and 75.3 years respectively - a year shorter than the next local authority, Liverpool.

In 2030, men in Kensington and Chelsea and Hart, in Hampshire, are forecast to live the longest, at 89.8 and 89.4 years respectively, while they will still live the shortest in Blackpool and Manchester, at 81.4 and 81.9 years respectively.

Women in 2012 lived longest in East Dorset and Kensington and Chelsea, at 87.3 and 86.6 years respectively, and shortest in Middlesborough and Manchester, both at 80.2 years.

In 2030 women are forecast to live longest in Kensington and Chelsea, at 92.6 and 91.2 years respectively and shortest in years in Blaenau Gwent and Middlesborough at 84.5 and 84.7 respectively.

Prof Ezzati said the key factors for determining how long people lived in a particular area were how "healthy a start to life [they have] in terms of nutrition, education and basic welfare". Adult unemployment levels are also important, he added.

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