King Salman speeds up accession of new generation in Saudi shuffle

With a stroke of his pen, Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud moved the conservative monarchy closer to modernity on Wednesday by anointing a new generation of Saudi rulers.

The king replaced Crown Prince Muqrin with his nephew, Mohammed bin Nayef, the capable interior minister who is set to be the first grandson of the kingdom's founder to rule the Gulf's most powerful monarchy.

But while the series of royal decrees moved Saudi Arabia away from a gerontocracy, it remains more closely controlled by the king's clan.

The king's favourite son, the relatively untested 30-year-old defence minister Mohammed bin Salman, was named second in line to the throne.

"Muqrin has shown himself to be more than competent and hardworking, but he lacks tribal lineage and Salman feels the need to move the new generation into power more rapidly," said Robert Lacey, author of The Kingdom: Arabia and The House of Saud.

"The reign of King Muqrin could have delayed the accession of King Mohammed bin Nayef by more than a decade, and no one doubts that Prince Mohammed is the truly effective man - respected inside Saudi and greatly trusted by America."

The stakes are high in this family merry-go-round. The kingdom is grappling with manifold domestic and international challenges: low oil prices and rising youth unemployment, the looming spectre of Islamist extremism and rising tensions with Saudi Arabia's rival for regional supremacy, Iran.

This concentration of power in the hands of Mohammed bin Nayef and Mohammed bin Salman will increase the importance of their working relationship in the coming years as the king ages. Bin Nayef, the senior partner at 55, is known as a hard worker with an eagle-eyed focus on security thanks to years of experience at the interior ministry.

The replacement of the foreign minister, diplomatic colossus Saud al-Faisal, with the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Adel al-Jubair, a commoner, is another power shift towards the two Mohammeds, analysts say.

"Adel is very proficient diplomat when explaining policy abroad, but if it comes to a difference of opinion between him and the princes, he will lose," said one observer.

Mohammed bin Salman has shot to stardom in recent months, despite his appointment as defence minister causing a shock within the family and country. Since then, his profile has expanded further via his lead role in Riyadh's bombing campaign against the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Tensions over the Yemeni campaign may have quickened the departure of Muqrin, whose tenure as crown prince was always going to be short, say analysts. But the inconclusive Saudi-led intervention - which has achieved limited military objectives while causing a humanitarian crisis - means Mohammed bin Salman's brief tenure at the defence ministry has not been an unqualified success.

Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi commentator, said that Prince Mohammed bin Salman has another 20 or 30 years to come to the throne and therefore plenty of time to cement his position.

The popularity of the king and that of his son has been boosted by the Yemen campaign, he added. "The Arab world now looks at Saudi Arabia as the regional leader and Saudi Arabia has to fulfil that obligation.

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"This is what Salman needs as his own faculties are failing," said Mr Lacey. "His young son worked so hard and became an extension of his father - an extra limb, if you like, with some additional mental horsepower thrown in."

Mohammed bin Salman could still be unseated, however, and will have to prove himself beyond his Sudeiri branch of the family, which has been strengthened by his elevation. Delivering economic growth in the face of lower oil prices could become the longer term yardstick of his ability to turn promise into power. The king announced another bumper pay bonus to military staff on Wednesday, following a similar public sector bonus on his ascension to the throne in January. But handouts will not deliver sustained economic growth as the oil-price slump tips the kingdom towards a fiscal deficit of around $100bn.

Saudi Arabia is already burning through its comfortable cushion of $750bn in foreign reserves. New official data shows that over the past three months it has withdrawn $36bn to sustain spending.

The promotion of Adel Faqih, the businessman turned technocrat, from the labour ministry to economy minister is a significant marker for domestic change. Mr Faqih has taken on entrenched religious and business figures to introduce controversial changes that have pushed more Saudis, especially women, into the private workforce.

"He's a great manager who gets things done," said one veteran Saudi analyst. "It's a good sign."

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