Instability fears rise as dozens join Myanmar election race

Myanmar's landmark elections have pulled in scores of political parties, complicating the battle for control of an ex-dictatorship whose resources and markets are much coveted by world powers. 

More than 70 national and regional groups so far have met an April 30 deadline to register for a long-awaited vote in which the ruling military-linked party could implode - yet still provide a president.

The parliamentary elections due in late October or early November are billed as a chance to escape a century and a half of authoritarianism, first through foreign occupiers then the military rulers who eventually gave way to a quasi-civilian government in 2011.

But analysts say internal power struggles and continuing curbs on democracy and freedom of expression mean there will almost certainly not be a straightforward transfer to majority rule in this country of 51m people, which is strategically located at the junction of China, India and Southeast Asia.

Much more likely are tricky post-election talks on power-sharing, followed by a longer - and potentially unstable - period during which pro-military elements and the various factions ranged against them test each other's strength.

"No one should expect this to be a big South Africa '94 moment," said one veteran international election expert who is now working on the Myanmar poll. "This is a transition that has been going on 10 years and has 10 more years to run."

A total of 71 parties have so far joined the race for the vote, according to the Myanmar national election commission's website. They range from national groups such as the ruling Union Solidarity and Development party and Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition National League for Democracy, to organisations from ethnic minority areas, where there are fears that on-off conflict between militias and government forces might in some cases prevent elections from being held.

The swell of parties is little surprise in a country riven by internal divisions first under British imperial occupation, then under the post-independence government and the military junta that exploited conflict to seize power in 1962.

This year's party roster is actually well short of the 235 that registered for elections in 1990, when the generals ignored the landslide victory won by the NLD - although observers say the numbers may have been inflated because joining the race won access to a precious telephone line.

Many expect the NLD to emerge as the largest party this year, perhaps even securing the two-thirds of constituencies it needs to ensure an overall majority in a parliament where the military is constitutionally guaranteed a quarter of the seats in both houses.

The NLD would then have a big say in the legislature's choice of president over the following months - but it cannot select Nobel Peace laureate Ms Suu Kyi due to a constitutional provision barring her because her children are not Myanmar nationals.

If the NLD instead backs a compromise candidate with a military background, such as the USDP's Thein Sein, the current president, or Thura Shwe Mann, parliamentary lower house speaker, analysts warn of the potential for renewed friction.

A strong opposition-dominated legislature would be pitted against a president who enjoys the backing of the still influential military but has less formal executive authority than his US counterpart.

"An adversarial relationship between president and parliament isn't always a bad thing but in Myanmar, the president can't veto legislation," says Richard Horsey, a Yangon-based analyst. "If the parliament started forcing laws on to the president, it could be too much for the system to bear."

Another potential source of tension is the British-style "first past the post" election system, in which candidates with the most votes in their area win national seats, rather than parliamentary seats being distributed in proportion to overall votes.

This disadvantages the USDP, which analysts believe has an even spread of support around the country, and so threatens the party with a near annihilation that some fear pro-military hardliners would be unwilling to accept. In 1990, the generals' favoured National Unity party won more than 20 per cent of the vote but only 2 per cent of parliamentary seats.

Observers say the USDP's best hope may lie in another electoral quirk: constituency electorates that vary wildly in size, from hundreds of thousands in some places to as few as 1,400 elsewhere.

Those discrepancies offer obvious opportunities for the ruling party to capture thinly populated seats by lavishing voters with public works projects or other sweeteners.

All this is seen as part of a broader strategy by which the military and its allies will try to let go of control only partially and gradually, even when faced with what is billed as the most open election process for 50 years.

"They are approaching the first real unknown of the transition strategy," says another international election expert. "This is about keeping a lid on other groups being able to come up and take power."

© The Financial Times Limited 2015. All rights reserved.
FT and Financial Times are trademarks of the Financial Times Ltd.
Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in any way.
Euro2day.gr is solely responsible for providing this translation and the Financial Times Limited does not accept any liability for the accuracy or quality of the translation