Republican hopefuls court wealthy donors

As Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, wined and dined supporters at a swanky Miami hotel this weekend, his brother George W Bush was speaking at the Venetian hotel 3,500km away in Las Vegas. The events had two things in common: the 2016 White House race - and money.

The former president, who has spent more time in retirement painting portraits than making speeches, addressed an event hosted by casino mogul Sheldon Adelson - an octogenarian who spent at least $92m backing the Republican candidates in the 2012 presidential election.

While Jeb Bush was thanking donors for funding what is expected to be a war chest of at least $100m by the time he launches his White House campaign, other Republican contenders such as Texas senator Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina senator mulling a run, were performing a political dog-and-pony show at what has been dubbed the "Sheldon Adelson primary".

Courting wealthy supporters has become increasingly important since the Supreme Court in 2010 ruled that outside groups known as super-political action committees (super-Pacs) could receive unlimited donations from people hoping to influence campaigns.

One of the biggest prizes in the so-called "invisible primaries" is the support of Charles and David Koch - billionaire industrialist brothers who have pledged to raise almost $900m through their political fundraising network to help conservative candidates in the 2016 presidential and congressional elections.

Speaking at a New York fundraiser last week, David Koch hinted that the brothers had settled on Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor, but his brother later said they were eyeing the five candidates with a real shot at the White House: Mr Walker, Mr Bush, Mr Cruz, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American senator from Florida. President Barack Obama highlighted the Kochs' importance while ribbing the tycoons at a Washington dinner on Saturday.

"I for one cannot wait to see who the Koch brothers pick. It's exciting. Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker. Who will finally get that red rose?" Mr Obama joked. "The winner gets a billion-dollar war chest . . . I mean, it's almost insulting to the candidates. The Koch brothers think they need to spend a billion dollars to get folks to like one of these people."

While money will play a big role in the 2016 election, the Republican nomination is complicated by the fact that close to 20 people are considering entering the race. Next week, Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, and Carly Fiorina, the former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, are expected to join the three freshman senators who have already launched campaigns for the White House.

Even before he formally announces, Mr Bush is the favourite of the GOP establishment. Despite concerns among the party's conservative base, he has until recently been placed at or near the top of the polls. But experts say the amount of money being raised by other contenders and the potential for wealthy donors such as the Koch brothers to back an array of candidates who have advantages in early primary states means the Republican race is the most competitive in years.

Super-Pacs supporting Mr Cruz have received at least $31m, with much of the money reportedly coming from Robert Mercer, a hedge fund operator. Meanwhile, Norman Braman, the car-dealer billionaire and former owner of the Philadelphia Eagles American football team, has committed $10m to Mr Rubio.

"The Republican nomination is more wide open than wide open," said Michael Barone, author of The Almanac of American Politics? pointing out that none of the - more than a dozen - declared and likely candidates get even 20 per cent support in early polls.

Underscoring the fluidity of the GOP race, Mr Rubio who is viewed as a fresh Republican face, last week vaulted to the top of two new polls. Fox News found that 13 per cent of people preferred Mr Rubio, compared with 12 per cent who liked Mr Walker, and 9 per cent who backed Mr Bush.

Nathan Gonzales, author of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, said that with so many candidates expected to run, it would be harder for each contender to find their niche. The expected field of candidates includes four sitting and one former senator, 10 current or former governors, several younger candidates, and a stronger bench of social conservatives than the 2012 election.

The diversity of the expected candidates and their differing appeal in the early voting states - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada - could also make it harder for one candidate to create momentum. In Iowa and South Carolina especially, the social conservatives - Mr Huckabee, Mr Cruz and to a lesser extent Mr Rubio - and the libertarian Mr Paul are better positioned than Mr Bush.

Few experts think Mr Huckabee has any chance of securing the Republican nomination, for example, but the former Baptist pastor won the Iowa caucus in 2008 and has the ability to mobilise evangelical voters who play a key role in the early primaries. Mr Graham is also not seen as a likely winner, but he could do well in his home state of South Carolina, complicating the path for others.

"You have more credible candidates with access to fundraising who will be able to stay in the race longer," said Mr Gonzales. "It is going to be difficult for any candidate to have a decisive victory in an early state."

Twitter: @DimiSevastopulo

[email protected]

© The Financial Times Limited 2015. All rights reserved.
FT and Financial Times are trademarks of the Financial Times Ltd.
Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in any way.
Euro2day.gr is solely responsible for providing this translation and the Financial Times Limited does not accept any liability for the accuracy or quality of the translation