Tight UK election worries EU allies

The UK's neck-and-neck general election is beginning to rattle the country's EU allies, who fear it will result in a fragile government and even set a course for a British exit from the bloc just as Europe faces a renewed Russian threat and a lingering economic crisis.

EU diplomats and politicians, particularly in the east of Europe, are concerned a minority administration, coalition or post-election deadlock will leave Britain unwilling or unable to engage in major EU issues and/or fixated by a referendum on whether to leave.

"Anything that weakens the UK also weakens Europe, and weakens Nato," said Jacek Rostowski, senior adviser to Poland's prime minister.

The Conservatives, who have been useful if not warm allies to many eastern European governments, have promised a referendum on EU membership for 2017. The Labour opposition says it will not hold one but is seen by other states as less dependable on defence matters, particularly if it ends up governing alongside the Scottish National party, which is against renewing Trident, Britain's nuclear deterrent.

Even France's ruling Socialists, who have long sought to pull the EU in a very different direction from successive UK governments, see clear downsides to a "Brexit". However, Paris puts limits on what the EU is ready to do to address internal British political issues.

Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, said: "An eventual exit of Britain from Europe would be negative for Europe but very negative for Britain. There are things to reform, simplifications, of course, but there cannot be cherry picking. If you join a soccer club, you cannot play rugby half way through."

UK relations with its traditional eastern European allies went through a rocky patch after David Cameron became prime minister in 2010, with the likes of Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic dismayed with British disengagement and euroscepticism, especially over the free movement of workers.

Relations have improved since the Ukraine crisis erupted last year. Britain, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states have acted as a hardline group on sanctions against Russian individuals and entities, acting as a counterweight to more reluctant countries such as Italy and France.

Mr Cameron has consistently backed eastern European demands for more pressure on Moscow at European Council meetings, while Philip Hammond, foreign secretary, has been dispatched to Warsaw in recent months to show Britain's resolve and reassure its nervous allies.

EU hawks fear that if the UK is distracted by domestic political wrangling, it could damage efforts to confront Russia's increased aggression.

One eastern European cabinet minister, said: "Essentially it is very difficult to negotiate or make agreements with a wobbly government. The biggest problem is that the fragmented nature of the likely outcome is only going to weaken British and thus European policy."

The UK's tight election race meant the outcome was "very murky, very uncertain," the minister added. "And that means a lack of credibility for Britain."

As for a possible referendum, another EU minister said countries would be unwilling to make big, final concessions to a British leader hobbled by power-sharing demands or internal party strife because they would fear being confronted with yet more demands.

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European politicians are often used to power-sharing and more relaxed about its uncertainties - Belgium holds a record for peacetime coalition talks that went on for more than 500 days. One senior diplomat joked that Britain was perhaps just becoming "an ordinary EU country".

Yet there is unease over the influence of the vocal minority of Conservative MPs who want to leave the EU, as well as public support for Nigel Farage's UK Independence party. Mr Cameron has promised to renegotiate Britain's EU membership before a referendum but politicians and officials on the continent fear he or his successor may be forced by eurosceptics to make impossible demands.

One senior eastern European official said: "As far as a Tory victory is concerned, we are obviously worried about the referendum. Concessions that may be made [by a UK prime minister] to stay in power are a very big worry."

The prospect of a government led by Labour's Ed Miliband, who has also promised more immigration controls, is also viewed with suspicion by EU members who regard the free movement of people as a core tenet of the bloc - meaning that many are preparing for a confrontation with London, whoever makes it into power.

One senior eurozone official noted Mr Miliband's apparent lack of interest in engaging with the group of centre-left leaders. He said the Labour leader rarely if ever attended joint events and had made little effort to build relations with Matteo Renzi of Italy, Francois Hollande of France or Sigmar Gabriel, Germany's centre-left vice-chancellor. "We notice," he said.

A senior diplomat from an eastern member state said: "The positive British EU agenda is now very thin. The hope is that the election brings a government that is reasonable and still believes the UK should be a part of Europe, not next to Europe."

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