The macabre market in Mediterranean migration

"'Tour operators' who trade in human misery"

Financial Times, April 23

Tour operators? The boats that have capsized while carrying migrants from north Africa to Italy are a long way from cruise ships.

The deaths are a human disaster. But experts who study migration across the Mediterranean say that to understand the issue, it can also help to see it as a commercial operation, albeit a macabre criminal one.

Macabre indeed. The number of deaths has increased in recent months.

The International Organization for Migration, an intergovernmental body, estimates the death toll on the Mediterranean this year is 1,727 migrants - at least 200 more than were killed on RMS Titanic and 30 times the toll by this time last year.

The passengers clearly take huge risks. How many actually reach Europe?

According to IOM, 170,100 migrants reached Italy (the most common irregular route to Europe from north Africa or the Middle East) by sea in 2014, roughly four times more than in 2013. As of April 17, Italian authorities registered 21,191 people.

The death rate has risen.

Yes. Based on the current figures, the death rate will have risen from about 0.2 per 100 people in the first four months of 2014 to 7.5 per 100 so far in 2015.

That's high.

By way of comparison, in 2014, a year of high-profile accidents involving large planes, there were 1,328 deaths and more than 3bn air passenger journeys. That works out as a death rate of "only" 0.00004 per 100.

Why has it increased in the Mediterranean?

It would have been higher if it were not for search and rescue operations conducted by the Italian coast guard, commercial ships and, until recently, by the Italian navy's Mare Nostrum operation. But last year the EU cut back that operation, making it harder to save migrants in the sea. (On Thursday the EU staged a U-turn and increased search and rescue funding.)

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No. The migrants have been dispatched by smugglers and human traffickers, with little or no concern for human life. They have already been paid. And in many cases there is an incentive for the smugglers to not have their boat reach Italy, lest it be identified, according to a 2014 report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.

That's awful.

Indeed. And yet, while not sparing any of the details - dozens crammed into overcrowded vans, hundreds of migrants left to starve in Saharan towns before they ever reach the coast - the GIATOC report is clear-eyed about the supply and demand behind migration.

How does that work?

Most arriving migrants in 2014 were from Syria, followed by Eritrea, Mali and Nigeria. War, oppression and internal chaos has increased demand to escape to Europe any way possible. Meanwhile EU countries continue to squabble about how many asylum seekers to accept.

Well I know that the UK will always do its bit.

Its bit is very small. The 31,000 applications the UK received in 2014 place it sixth in the EU, behind Hungary (41,000), France (59,000), Italy (63,000), Sweden (75,000) and Germany (173,000).

And I suppose the situation in Libya is only accelerating these refugee flows from north Africa.

The Global Initiative report says that whereas many migrants might have stayed in north Africa upon arrival from sub-Saharan Africa, the conflict in Libya has encouraged more people to try their luck on the boat. It estimates that there might be 600,000 migrants on the north Africa coast who could try to get to Europe by sea.

All of this demand has created a market in people smuggling, I presume.

GIATOC estimates that at least 80 per cent of the people leaving from north Africa have paid smugglers or a smuggling network to take them to the coast. It says that these criminal syndicates have become more "professionalised".

Hence the metaphor of the tour operator.

Yes, though it is referring to logistical sophistication, not comfort. The migrants' journeys can take years and they risk death, starvation, rape and assault along any one of the three main African routes to the coast.

What service do they receive for the thousands of dollars it can cost them?

Historically, smuggling groups offered a "pay as you go" service, GIATOC says. But increasingly, networks offer a "full packet solution", including transport to the coast and forged documentation.

And after all that, they still may not even survive the final crossing.

GIATOC estimates that 10-15 per cent of migrants leaving their country of origin actually end up in Europe.

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