UK election: Who will run Britain?

British politics has traditionally been painted in binary colours: Labour red and Conservative blue. But the general election on May 7 is a kaleidoscope, with yellow, orange, green and purple added to the mix, resulting in the most unpredictable contest in a lifetime.

The polls have been static for weeks, with the Conservative and Labour parties stuck on roughly 34 per cent each. So the real drama is likely to take place after 10pm on polling day, as David Cameron, the Tory prime minister, and Ed Miliband, his Labour rival, try to claw their way to power.

The bookmakers name Mr Cameron favourite to win most seats in the House of Commons, but expect him to fall short of an outright majority. They reckon Mr Miliband is most likely to be Britain's next prime minister.

"I'm fighting for a majority - it's do-able," Mr Cameron told the Financial Times at the start of the campaign. But the polls suggest it is unlikely: both Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband will probably need the support of other parties. The haggling starts on May 8.

Could Mr Miliband mix Labour's red with the yellow of the Scottish National party, the orange of Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats and perhaps a dash of Green to take power? Or could Mr Cameron mix his Tory blue with Lib Dem orange for a re-run of Britain's current coalition; perhaps with a tinge of purple supplied by a handful of UK Independence party MPs?

"It's like freestyle wrestling - anyone can talk to anyone," says Peter Riddell of the Institute for Government. Although Queen Elizabeth has formally to invite either Mr Cameron or Mr Miliband to form a government, she will not move until they have sorted out the maths.

Under Britain's hazy constitutional arrangements, Mr Cameron remains prime minister while the political dealing is under way and should only tender his resignation when it is apparent that he is no longer able to govern and that there is a clear replacement.

In a hung parliament Mr Cameron might try to stitch together a deal with the Lib Dems and buy the votes of Northern Ireland's Unionist politicians by offering more cash for the province - but even that may not get him to the finishing post of 326 seats.

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Labour knows it could pay a price for doing a deal with Ms Sturgeon, the star of this lacklustre campaign, who has been branded by the Tory-supporting press as "the most dangerous woman in Britain". The SNP wants to end austerity and win more power for Scotland.

If Mr Cameron won perhaps 290 seats in the 650-seat chamber, he might try to form a minority government and dare Mr Miliband to vote him down, knowing that the Labour leader would be taking a political risk if he entered Downing Street relying on SNP support.

The 2010 coalition was put together in five days, a remarkably rapid achievement compared with the 80 days it took Angela Merkel in Germany in 2013 or the 140 days in Belgium in 2014.

This time in Britain it may take longer. But Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband will be under pressure to work through the numbers of this most closely contested election by May 27, when the Queen is due to open parliament formally.

If neither can win support for their legislative programme on that day, a second election in the autumn is almost inevitable.

May 7 - Election night

If one party has a majority, it should become clear in the early hours of the morning, at which point the losing leader is expected to concede defeat.

But if the result is as close as expected, David Cameron will remain as prime minister while both parties try to ?nd the numbers to form a government.

The onus is on Mr Cameron to resign, and according to rules he approved, he must do so only if two conditions are satis?ed: that he cannot command a majority and that there is a viable alternative. Labour will ?nd it harder to prove the second is true.

May 8 - Coalition negotiations begin

In the event of a hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats are likely to start talks with whichever side has the most seats. If the result is very close, they could begin simultaneous negotiations.

Over the next days and possibly weeks, politicians will have discussions in Westminster to try to form the next government. If the Tories, the Lib Dems and possibly the Ulster Unionists can pool enough seats for a majority, this should keep Mr Cameron in power.

But if, as polls currently suggest, the three parties do not have enough MPs, Mr Cameron will need to decide whether Labour, with the tacit support of the SNP, provides a viable alternative for him to step down.

If he decides this is not the case, he is entitled to remain in position and go to the Commons to see if he can get enough votes to pass his ?rst piece of legislation. Labour may try to sign an informal agreement with the Scottish nationalists to force Mr Cameron's hand.

May 18 - MPs returns to the CommonsIf either party is in charge of a minority government or a small minority, they will spend the next few days trying to ?rm up votes to be able to pass their ?rst act.

May 27 - The Queen's SpeechThe ?rst act of any government in a session of parliament is to pass a motion stating what it intends to do over the coming year.

By tradition, a prime minister who fails to pass a Queen's Speech then resigns. To have forced Mr Cameron out of power Labour is likely to have already received guarantees of support for its ?rst speech.

In the event of a Cameron resignation Labour would be handed a chance to form the next government. But if, as is possible, the party reject that offer, both parties may then vote to dissolve parliament and hold a second election.

June - The BudgetLabour has promised an emergency Budget within a month of the election. This may be the chance for the Nationalists to vote against Labour on a point of principle - for example, the renewal of Britain's nuclear deterrent.

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, this would not automatically trigger a prime ministerial resignation, but Ed Miliband may threaten to do so in advance as a ploy to guarantee SNP support. More likely is that, having come this far, the two parties would strike a deal on the Budget.

The Conservatives would have until March 2016 to enact their ?rst Budget - giving them more time to ?rm up any power-sharing deal.

The numbers: For a Labour-led formal coalition to get off the ground, Labour would need to rely mainly on the Liberal Democrats. If the Lib Dems win the 30 seats they are currently projected to, Labour would need to get close to 295 to have a chance of making this work. Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has said that doing a deal with a "tribal" Labour party could be difficult.

Though the 40-50 Scottish National party seats would help a Labour government pass legislation, both parties have ruled out a formal coalition deal. The Greens and Northern Ireland's Social Democratic and Labour party could add ballast, but not much

Likelihood: The problem lies with the Lib Dems. Many believe a possible coalition with Labour threatens their hold over any remaining seats after a coalition with the Tories. Some fear the party's "strong economy, fair society" identity - well defined in coalition with the Tories - could be submerged in a Labour tie-up.

The numbers: The Conservatives could do a deal with the Liberal Democrats and Northern Ireland's Unionist parties. The DUP may end up with 10 seats, which could prove crucial in a closely-tied parliament - but it may still not be enough. While the Lib Dems are keen to play up the chance of a deal between the Tories and the eurosceptic UK Independence party, senior Conservatives such as Michael Gove, the party's chief whip, have ruled out the idea of "getting into bed" with Ukip in a hung parliament.

Ukip, which has struggled to make its mark during the campaign, is unlikely to add more than four or five MPs to the mix.

Likelihood: Lib Dem members are wary of another coalition with the Tories but the leadership appears to be willing to contemplate it. Nick Clegg has talked about a Labour government lacking legitimacy if it has won fewer votes and seats, which would suggest he favours a deal with his current coalition partner.

The numbers: If David Cameron wins 290-300 seats, he could decide to go it alone, perhaps offering limited concessions to win the support of the Lib Dems and Northern Ireland parties for crucial parliamentary votes - a so-called "confidence and supply" deal.

Many Tory MPs would prefer the political purity of a minority government. But as one senior Tory minister says, it is "an urban myth" in the party that it would be easy to run a minority administration. Bitter memories of John Major's attempt to run a Tory government with a small majority in the 1990s remain.

Likelihood: Only if Tories get close to the 326-seat winning post. George Osborne, chancellor, is among those warning about the problems of trying to govern with no majority. And Nick Clegg, Lib Dem leader, favours a formal coalition over a looser deal.

The numbers: Ed Miliband could enter Number 10 propped up from the outside by the support of the Scottish National party. There would be no formal coalition but the nationalists say it would keep the Labour leader in power in exchange for concessions.

If Labour won 275 seats and the SNP 50, that would just about get Mr Miliband over the finishing line.

But some Labour MPs, and many of its supporters, might balk at the idea of doing a deal with the SNP - especially if the projections are correct and it routs Labour north of the border.

Likelihood: Seen by some as the most likely outcome. Nicola Sturgeon, SNP leader, has promised to "lock David Cameron out of Number 10". And if the numbers add up - and it is the only way for Mr Miliband to take power - the Labour leader will surely do a deal with Ms Sturgeon.

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