General election: Testing the mood in Ukip marginal

David Cameron has been accused by Labour of "scaremongering" and kindling English nationalism, but among voters in the marginal seat of Thurrock the prime minister's warnings about the Scottish National party calling the shots at Westminster are having an impact.

When the prospect of a Labour/SNP deal in a hung parliament is raised with Essex voters, there is a collective shaking of heads. "I don't like it," says Fred Cutts, a retired lorry driver. "We'd all be emigrating," says Wendy Dowling, a cook.

In an election that has failed to ignite much public interest, the first of four FT/Populus focus groups in marginal seats suggests the incessant Conservative warnings about the SNP is one of the few political messages getting through.

Jane Potter, a former Liberal Democrat supporter, summed up the mood of the focus group in Thurrock, one of the UK Independence party's top target seats: "If there is going to be a coalition, I need to know who is getting into bed with who."

It is this kind of response that has encouraged Tory campaign chiefs to promote the idea of Ed Miliband entering Number 10 as a "hostage" to Nicola Sturgeon's SNP, and being forced to put up taxes and transfer English cash to Scotland as a result.

Mr Cameron hopes that by stoking fears of the SNP, he can win back votes in marginal seats such as Thurrock, particularly among voters tempted to put their cross in a Ukip box.

Thurrock, a collection of working class communities scattered across the Essex flatlands, lies within the M25 motorway but feels a long way from London and the "metropolitan elite" derided by Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader.

The 10 members of the FT focus group have mixed views about the way the country is going: a number complain that the recovery is not working for "people like us", but others note that there are more jobs in the area.

There is not much love for Mr Cameron's coalition, but a grudging acceptance among some that it was "better the devil you know". Another comment is: "We should stick with what we've got."

Most elections fall into two categories, either "time for a change" or "stick with what we've got", but the voters of Thurrock seem to have little enthusiasm for either idea.

<

The tabular content relating to this article is not available to view. Apologies in advance for the inconvenience caused.

Mr Cameron's problem is that in working class seats such as Thurrock he has failed to connect with voters, in spite of reviving policies like Right to Buy and "Tell Sid" share offers that helped Margaret Thatcher to sweep Essex.

When the focus group is asked to draw a "Ukip house", the common depiction is of a "normal house" or a "council house" - an illustration of how far Ukip has come from its original caricature as a political home for retired generals in Dorset.

By contrast the "Conservative house" is portrayed by members of the group as a large country pile, probably with an outdoor swimming pool and with a Jaguar, Lexus or Range Rover in the drive.

Ukip's message on immigration also plays strongly in the focus group, with Ms Dowling saying the issue "has been building up for 25 or 30 years" in Thurrock. Peter Gibson, a truck driver, says: "This government let even more in."

A mood of alienation from mainstream politicians in Westminster, 20 miles away, pervades the discussion, making the outcome in Thurrock - a seat currently held by the Tories - almost impossible to predict.

When the votes are counted in a secret ballot at the end of the discussion, the FT/Populus focus group casts four votes for Labour and three each for Tories and Ukip. The result on May 7 is likely to be equally tight.

© The Financial Times Limited 2015. All rights reserved.
FT and Financial Times are trademarks of the Financial Times Ltd.
Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in any way.
Euro2day.gr is solely responsible for providing this translation and the Financial Times Limited does not accept any liability for the accuracy or quality of the translation