Deutsche's belated fine shows it may not pay to come too quietly

Deutsche Bank has been a doubly naughty boy. Not only has the bank been fined $2.5bn for traders' attempts to rig rate benchmarks, typically through a City subsidiary, but a proportion of fines reflect foot-dragging and equivocation by Deutsche in its dealings with investigators.

The Financial Conduct Authority says one Deutsche executive told top enforcer Tracey McDermott that German watchdog BaFin had insisted a crucial report could not be shared. When he found this was untrue, he failed to inform her. Another banker, metaphorical pants ablaze, claimed Libor submissions were strictly controlled, according to the FCA.

By the pedestrian standards of City watchdog-dodging, such behaviour was equivalent to the bit in Police Camera Action! when the car thief drives 20 miles the wrong way up the M40 before dumping the Evoque in a field and fleeing the constabulary on foot.

The FCA fined Deutsche £101m for so-called Principle 11 breaches, almost as much as the penalty for misconduct. It is unclear whether any of the $2.2bn levied by US watchdogs, who have higher maintenance lifestyles, was for evasions. It is right that banks should be penalised for trying to pull the wool over the eyes of regulators. But the depressingly amoral conclusion of this tale is that such fines may be a worthwhile price to pay to postpone punishment for the original offence.

Barclays got a pat on the back and a lower fine from the FCA for being the first bank to settle a Libor-rigging case in 2012. It has yet to recover from the blow to its public credibility. Outside the financial media, Germans have responded with a yawn to the exposure of Deutsche as the latest in an ever-longer line of Libor fiddlers.

Ride a grey swan

Sir Martin Sorrell, boss of ad group WPP, is scared of grey swans. Pub bores insist a swan can "break a man's arm with its wing". They themselves can break a man's spirit with a single anecdote. However, Sir Martin's anxiety concerns economic grey swans - likely events with uncertain consequences - rather than the kind that mug joggers on riverbanks. Such worries underpin a cautious take on business confidence that, in turn, raises questions about the sustainability of UK earnings.

The Napoleon of Adland's two unpredictable critters are Federal Reserve tightening and the UK election. These, combined with such horrors as shareholder activism, have left companies risk averse and therefore focused on cutting costs rather than expanding sales, he says.

It takes a boss of Sir Martin's confidence to add such a gloomy rider to creditable first-quarter sales, up 7.4 per cent in constant currencies at £2.8bn. The subdued appetite for promotion reported by Sir Martin is part of a wider picture of weak UK investment accompanied by faltering earnings. Higher dividends are a way to paper over the cracks. Without payback on new ventures - or a surprise global economic rally - these payouts must plateau and then fall.

Simon French, senior economist at Panmure Gordon, expects earnings per share for UK stocks to drop 10-15 per cent this year. Dividends per share are meanwhile rising about 5 per cent. This long-run trend has left the ratio of the former to the latter at 20-year lows.

It is a shame brokers no longer talk of "a superfluity of money" as they did in Victorian times. The phrase explains why stocks are high at a time of raggedy confidence.

Mac attack

John McFarlane, the new chairman of Barclays, has written to shareholders setting out five priorities. This list is less revealing than an early draft obtained* by Lombard, as follows:One. Let colleagues know who they're dealing with. Strew a few copies of the awards brochure for Non-executive Director of the Year around the office, open at the page with my photo on it. Remind everyone I hired Mark Wilson as chief executive of Aviva.Two. Make sure staff at the investment bank are on their toes. Hang round North Colonnade scoring names off a list and whistling "Mack the Knife". Politely indicate it would be advisable to deliver returns above the cost of capital. Try not to use the F word.Three. Vouchsafe insights gained during successful stints at Standard Chartered and ANZ. Dead bat any questions about the 42 per cent drop in the shares of FirstGroup during my chairmanship. Four. Let on we're maintaining the dividend. Then cut the dividend. It yanked insurance analysts' chains when I was chairing Aviva (where I hired Mark Wilson, let's not forget). It should wind up bank analysts too.Five. Show Antony Jenkins I appreciate his repeated efforts to revive Barclays' bottom line. Show him my collection of skiffle records. Show him the door. Phone Mark Wilson and ask him if he'd like to come and work at Barclays."* in our dreams

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