Uneasy peace looking shaky as Gazans prepare for war

Just inside northern Gaza, near the Erez checkpoint with Israel, steep embankments shelter a new training camp where fighters from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine have been conducting weapons and explosives training.

Just behind is a camp belonging to Hamas, the Islamist group that rules the densely populated territory. Both are part of what Palestinians say is increased vigilance for a possible new war with Israel.

International donors, analysts, and political figures in Gaza say warning signs of a new conflict have appeared less than a year after last summer's war, the bloodiest of three Israel and Hamas have fought since 2009. Dubbed Operation Protective Edge by the Israelis, it killed more than 2,200 people, mostly Palestinians, and ended without a long-term truce between the two sides.

"Since the end of the recent aggression of the Israelis in Gaza, we have begun preparations for the next war," a PFLP leader who calls himself Abu Jamal says at a cafe in Beit Lahiya, northern Gaza. "We expect at any time that there might be an aggression on Gaza, especially in light of the changes in the Middle East and the result of Israeli elections where the extreme right wing gained popularity."

Six months after the international community pledged $3.5bn to rebuild Gaza, barely a quarter of the funds have been released and "further conflict is inevitable", a group of 46 aid agencies warned last week. Donor fatigue with the conflict, and misgivings about a frozen reconciliation process between Hamas and Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah, have stalled the rebuilding process.

According to Basil Nasser, acting head of the UN development programme's Gaza office, only Qatar and Kuwait have begun paying in money to rebuild some of the more than 10,000 houses destroyed or severely damaged during the war.

"If something dramatic doesn't happen in the Gaza Strip with regard to the reconstruction process, the probability of another violent round is higher," says Kobi Michael, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

In addition to its training exercises at the northern border, Hamas has been rebuilding its arsenal and firing test rockets into the sea.

Israeli defence ministry inspectors last week stopped a shipment of thousands of welding electrodes that they claimed could be used by militant groups to produce rocket fins and other weapons parts.

Palestinian leaders and Gaza residents, having borne the brunt of three Israeli military operations, say any rearming is defensive. Many express alarm over the bellicose rhetoric about Gaza during Israel's recent election campaign. Far-right nationalist Avigdor Lieberman - who is bidding for the defence ministry in Mr Netanyahu's next government - vowed in March that the next war with Hamas in Gaza would be the last.

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In Gaza, the shows of military force by Hamas and other militant groups are seen as being staged, in part, for domestic consumption. "It's sending two messages: one to the Israelis that the current ceasefire is shaky and can collapse at any moment, and the other to the Palestinian public that Hamas is still committed to resistance and fighting Israel," says Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Al-Azhar University in Gaza City.

The rocket tests and training exercises have coincided with unconfirmed reports that Israel and Hamas have been holding secret, indirect talks through foreign intermediaries on a multiyear truce that would see the militant group lay down arms in exchange for wartime demands, which included the building of a seaport and airport for Gaza, being met.

Reports of these talks, which Hamas officials have denied were under way, have fanned speculation that the group could be seeking to cement Gaza's status as a statelet separate from the Palestinian territories in the West Bank.

However, whatever the calculations of either side, both Israelis and Palestinians voice fears that the risk of an unintended military escalation is high.

A bullet fired this month from one of the Gaza training camps hit a synagogue inside Israel. Residents of Netiv Haasara, a border community, have complained of hearing nightly explosions and filmed what they said were Hamas fighters digging tunnels tens of metres from the border.

"We hope no war is coming but Israel has always been the one threat against our people, and we are in self-defence mode," says Iyad Albozum, a spokesman for Gaza's Hamas-controlled defence ministry.

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