Abe faces defining week as he readies speech to US Congress

Shinzo Abe is about to start a defining week for his premiership as he travels to Indonesia before an unprecedented address to a joint session of the US Congress early next week.

The Japanese prime minister's words - around the troubled memory of world war two, in particular - will have repercussions for the Japan/US alliance, his authority at home and his room for manoeuvre in a statement on the 70th anniversary of the war's end this August.

Officials are giving away little about the content of Mr Abe's Washington speech, but people who know the prime minister point to his address at the Australian parliament in Canberra last year as a potential model.

Mr Abe will first speak at the Asian-African summit in Bandung, Indonesia, on Wednesday - the anniversary of a similar meeting 60 years ago where many former colonies asserted their independence. Mr Abe could meet Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, on the sidelines in what would only be the second meeting between the two.

But the main focus will be on Mr Abe's week-long visit to the US, with April 29 set to see the first address to a joint session of Congress by a Japanese prime minister. Kuni Miyake, president of the Foreign Policy Institute in Tokyo, said the trip was a "golden opportunity" to strengthen the bilateral relationship as China's rise shifts the balance of power in Asia.

Whether Mr Abe can do that is likely to depend on how well he tackles Washington's doubts about his conservative nationalism by meeting demands for strong statements on wartime history.

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Mr Abe's Canberra speech, notable for its specific and emotive message to Australia, shows how he may go about it. Very early in the speech, the Japanese prime minister referred to Kokoda and Sandakan, two of the most resonant events in world war two history for his Australian audience.

The Kokoda trail in Papua New Guinea was the scene of a brutal battle between Japanese and Australian forces in 1942, while hundreds of Australian prisoners-of-war died in death marches at the Sandakan camp.

Mr Abe spoke of the loss of the "bright futures" of young Australian soldiers, sent his "sincere condolences" and said he was "humble against the evils and horrors of history".

If he chooses to follow that model in Washington, he might speak of places such as Bataan, where US prisoners died on a death march; savage battles such as Guadalcanal; and Pearl Harbour, where Japan's attack began the Pacific war.

In his Canberra speech, Mr Abe went on to tell stories about Australian forgiveness for Japan and state his "great and wholehearted gratitude". Only then did he move on to shared interests of trade and security - which are likely to be at the centre of his Washington speech as well.

Many analysts in Tokyo believe there is no apology that would satisfy China and South Korea. But they view the US as open-minded and say it is essential to be forthcoming. If the US hears a sincere apology from Mr Abe, it could allow him to be less defensive in how he frames his 70th anniversary statement in August.

As well as history, Mr Abe will have a lot of contemporary issues to talk about, from security co-operation to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.

Negotiators are signalling that agreement on the TPP is close, but Mr Abe is unlikely to commit himself too far unless Congress has given fast-track negotiating authority to President Barack Obama.

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