Young Arabs lose faith in democracy as focus turns to Islamists

Young people in the Arab world have become disenchanted with the prospect of democratic change in the region as the euphoria of the Arab uprisings has mutated into fear of violent Islamist extremism, research shows.

According to the seventh annual Asda'a Burson-Marsteller Arab youth survey, there has been a marked decline in the number of young people who have faith in democracy since civil unrest that began at the end of 2010 toppled four Arab leaders.

In 2011, 92 per cent of Arab youths said their biggest desire was "living in a democracy". In 2012, 41 per cent of respondents said the biggest obstacle facing the Middle East was a lack of democracy. But that declined to 15 per cent among the 3,500 people aged 18-24 interviewed for this year's survey. Some 39 per cent this year also said democracy would never work in the region.

Respondents in Yemen, Qatar and Saudi Arabia were the most sceptical about the possibility of democracy being established, with those in Kuwait, Iraq and Libya the most optimistic.

As the Arab uprisings have been replaced by crackdowns on Islamist parties and the rise of Islamist extremist groups in Iraq, Syria and Libya, the impact of conflicts pitting Sunni against Shia - most recently in Yemen - has further damped optimism.

Many respondents identified the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, as the biggest challenge facing the region. Some 37 per cent said the group was the main threat, while 32 per cent cited terrorism and 29 per cent unemployment. The threat of a nuclear Iran was cited by eight per cent.

This mix of political and economic challenges appears to have undermined positive perceptions of the Arab uprisings.

In 2012, 72 per cent said the Arab world was better off since the revolts broke out, an proportion that declined to 38 per cent this year. The number who believe they will be better off in five years has declined by a similar amount.

Unemployment - believed to affect more than one in four Arab youths - remains a key challenge, with 81 per cent expressing concerns about joblessness, up from 63 per cent last year.

Only a third of those polled from outside the Gulf believe their governments will be able to cope with unemployment, while two-thirds of those from Gulf states have faith in their leaders' ability to deliver jobs.

Nearly two in five young Arabs are looking to start their own businesses over the next five years, the survey found. Technology, retail and real estate are the most popular sectors for budding entrepreneurs.

The highest proportion was found Morocco at 62 per cent. Only 13 per cent of Iraqis said they planned to start a business.

Two-thirds of youths in countries belonging to Opec are worried about falling oil prices, with similar numbers concerned that the impact will be felt in their living standards and government social spending.

One in five of those polled say they would like to live in the United Arab Emirates and a similar proportion would like their home countries to be like the UAE. The Gulf federation was followed into second and third place by the US and Germany, respectively.

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