Xi Jinping lands in Pakistan bearing $45bn in investment pledges

Chinese President Xi Jinping, bearing promises of more than $45bn in infrastructure investment, began a visit to Pakistan on Monday that will strengthen economic and military ties between Beijing and its nuclear-armed south Asian ally, launch a new Chinese diplomatic drive in Asia and underline the waning influence of the US in Islamabad.

Eight Pakistani JF-17 fighter jets - jointly manufactured by Pakistan and China - escorted Mr Xi's presidential aircraft in Pakistani airspace. The JF17 is among the most visible signs of Chinese support for Pakistan following a US decision in 1990 to block the sale of its F16 military jets because of concerns over Islamabad's nuclear programmes.

Pakistan will be the first testing ground for Beijing's regional economic strategy known as the Silk Road Economic Belt, a concept first announced by Mr Xi during a visit to Kazakhstan in 2013. It has since been renamed "One Belt, One Road" and is designed to promote regional stability, expand China's economic footprint and boost China's exports through a combination of commercial investment and aid.

China wants to counter an Islamist separatist insurgency in Xinjiang, develop China's western hinterlands by giving them more access to markets in central Asia, and at the same time help stabilise Afghanistan and Pakistan with much needed economic infrastructure.

"With the US adjusting its role in Afghanistan, China will play a larger constructive role in the region, mostly in safeguarding social and political stability," said Fu Xiaoqiang of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

The Pakistani government is delighted with China's new strategy, and one senior Pakistani official described the visit as "a game-changer for us, for Pakistan-Afghanistan [relations], for this region as a whole". Alluding to the sometimes awkward relationship with the US, one Pakistani minister said China had treated Pakistan with respect, "unlike some other countries". Mr Xi, in a gesture rarely extended to foreign visitors, is due to address Pakistan's parliament on Tuesday.

Ahead of the visit, Pakistani officials were already celebrating promised investments of some $34bn in energy projects for the electricity-starved country, and a further $11bn in roads, a railway, and other transport infrastructure, including for the Gwadar port.

The so-called "China-Pakistan economic corridor" between Gwadar in southern Pakistan and China's predominantly Muslim western Xinjiang region will shorten the freight distance between western China and the oil-rich Middle East, Pakistani officials note, while simultaneously demonstrating that Pakistani is attracting foreign investment.

In a show of deepening military ties, Mr Xi's visit was preceded by confirmation that the Pakistan navy will buy eight Chinese submarines after failing to strike an agreement with other suppliers. The types of submarines and their expected cost has not been revealed, but analysts say the contract could be worth $4bn-$5bn and would be the largest defence contract for both countries.

China has also been in talks with Pakistan over the sale of 30-40 FC31 stealth fighter planes, which analysts say will help counter the challenge posed by India, Pakistan's main south Asian foe. Narendra Modi, Indian prime minister, recently announced the planned purchase of 36 Rafale combat jets from France.

"The Chinese president's visit shows that the Chinese are signalling a strategic stake in Pakistan's stability and future," said Mushahid Hussain, a prominent opposition politician and head of the independent Pakistan-China Institute in Islamabad.

Zafar Hilaly, a former Pakistani diplomat, added: "If all the economic projects planned by China materialise, that will be a boost for Pakistan which will be fairly unprecedented."

Western diplomats in Islamabad said the fanfare surrounding the planned Chinese investments should be treated with caution given the violent Taliban insurgency in the country. "If Pakistan fails to end the Taliban threat, how will there be enough stability to let the Chinese projects continue?" asked one.

A senior Pakistani intelligence official, however, said the government was establishing a special force led by the Pakistan army to provide security for the 55 Chinese projects in the economic corridor. "We are all aware of the risks," the official said.

Additional reporting by Victor Mallet in New Delhi and Ma Fangjing in Beijing

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