Risks and realities of flying

Andreas Lubitz seemed like a normal guy. His neighbours described the Germanwings pilot as quiet and friendly. His employer, Lufthansa, had no concerns. But behind the facade lay a secret. Like 20 per cent of the world's population, the pilot who killed himself and 149 others when he crashed his aircraft into the side of a mountain in France last month suffered from depression.

The tragedy last month has sparked yet another debate about the dangers of flying, and in particular about the risks of entrusting the lives of hundreds to human pilots. One study cited in the UN's current aviation medicine manual found that roughly 75 per cent of pilots surveyed would hide their depression from their employer if it meant they would not be allowed into the cockpit while on antidepressants.

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Yet despite these terrible incidents, 2014 was the safest year on record to fly, according to the Aviation Safety Network. There were 21 fatal accidents, the lowest number since 1946, even though the volume of commercial flights has grown exponentially to carry more than 3bn people last year.

The number of fatalities in 2014 was high due to the big crashes, making it just the 24th safest year in terms of deaths. But the reality is that there has never been a safer time to board a plane, thanks to better crew training and advances in technology. Over the past 20 years, the rate of fatal accidents has fallen by more than two-thirds from roughly 0.7 per million flights to about 0.2 per million - or one fatal crash for every five million aircraft departures.

Even so, the fear of flying persists. "The problem is how to manage the perception of safety," says Professor Graham Braithwaite, of the Safety and Accident Investigation Centre at Cranfield University. "We have got to an amazing level of safety but there is a limit to how much more we can improve something that is that safe."

One European safety regulator, who preferred to remain anonymous, said the most common type of accident in the 1980s and 90s - where the crew did not realise how low the plane was flying - has been virtually eliminated through better technology and training. Attention is now focused on incidents such as a pilot losing control of an aircraft, which are so uncommon that "statistically they are hard to measure".

This does not mean that we can take safety for granted. The Germanwings crash has highlighted weaknesses in the assessment of pilot fitness. The UN's International Civil Aviation Organisation - which sets global safety standards - warned three years ago that not enough attention was being paid to mental fitness in the regular medical assessments that every pilot has to undergo.

Nevertheless, the incidence of pilot suicide using passenger jets is extremely low, in part because pilots are assessed not just in medical exams but in the lengthy training sessions they have to attend several times a year. The Aviation Safety Network, an independent accident database, shows 13 incidents since 1919, of which just four involved commercial airliners carrying passengers.

Regulators are more worried about the increasingly automated nature of the cockpit and whether pilots still have the flying skills they had when aircraft were less reliable. "You need a good knowledge of systems but you also need a flight crew who, when things do not go as expected, are able to go back to basics," says the European regulator.

Pilots also have to cope with more complex technology outside the aircraft. Dubai airport was brought to a standstill in January when drones suddenly appeared in the airspace normally reserved for passenger jets. Growing commercial and personal access to these unmanned aircraft is "definitely" a safety issue, says Sir Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline, Dubai's national carrier. "You have to legislate against the use of drones in restricted airspace."

Finally, the public's insatiable appetite for air travel and the goods it transports mean airlines are working their crews harder than ever. Though the hours that crew can fly are closely regulated, fatigue is now top of the list of safety priorities for both pilots' unions and regulators. "Fatigue acts to increase all types of error," says Rob Hunter of the British Airlines Pilots Association.

If humans are the problem, then why not replace them with robots? That might not be so easy, says Braithwaite. Humans still feel safer with other humans. "We could replace people with automation now," he says. "But at what point will you feel confident about flying in airspace with a mix of these things? Would you want to board the plane?"

Peggy Hollinger is the FT's industry editor

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