Once a taboo, Nato membership now a hot topic in Finland

Four years ago, when Finland's current government came to power, Nato membership was deliberately ruled out.

Now, with a new government set to come to power after elections on Sunday, Nato membership - once a taboo subject in the Nordic nation - is being anxiously discussed.

That shift, which runs counter to a decades-long posture of studious neutrality, has been prompted by Russia's increasing aggression in eastern Europe and the Baltics. Finland recently joined fellow Nordic countries in deeming Russia "the gravest challenge to European security".

Yet the mere prospect of closer ties to Nato has prompted concern and debate about whether such a move might ultimately backfire by provoking a country with whom Finland shares a 1,300-kilometre border.

"Yes, of course there should be a debate on Nato membership," says Juha Sipila, frontrunner to become prime minister and the leader of the Centre party.

He himself is against membership currently - as are a majority of Finns - viewing Finland's current strong partnership with Nato as sufficient. Still, he adds: "We have to be very careful with the issue all the time and we can't close the door."

Anxiety over Russia's annexation of Crimea and three violations by Russian jets of Finnish airspace last year has brought the issue of security and Nato membership to the top of the election agenda.

"There is a significant increase in the perception of feeling threatened. It's not directly 'the tanks are coming'. It's 'every time the Soviet Union or Russia was this unpredictable [in the past], Finland was involved and bad things happened'," says Charly Salonius-Pasternak, senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

In a series of interviews, the four main party leaders have sketched out a scenario where a report into the pros and cons of membership and a national debate are likely after the elections.

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He believes the first two are likely to be achieved, no matter what the complexion of the next coalition - likely to feature the Centre party and two of the three next biggest parties, Mr Stubb's National Coalition party, the centre-left Social Democrats or the populist Finns.

"I believe that Finland will join Nato one day, when that is I cannot give you a date," Mr Stubb says, who argues joining would increase Finland's security and "bring us to our natural value base of western democracies".

Antti Rinne, leader of the Social Democrats, is perhaps the most negative on membership, arguing that joining now would "increase the risks" to Finnish foreign policy. But even he does not want to rule it out. "If the [security] environment has changed so much we need to have the possibility of getting membership. But nowadays I think it is better to be out of Nato," he says.

The most recent poll suggests 40 per cent of Finns are against membership while 28 per cent are in favour. However, Mr Stubb points to some polls asking a subsidiary question - would you support membership if the nation's political leaders did? - and that option then receives a majority of support.

Timo Soini, the leader of the populist anti-euro Finns party and head of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, admits that his own party is divided on the issue but insists "we must have the option".

To those in Finland who argue that joining now would be an unnecessary provocation of Russia, he answers: "This is a tricky question in the sense that when times are bad it is not the right time and when times are good there is no reason to join."

Instead, he thinks what could eventually happen is that one weekend all four party leaders go to a "cottage" with the president and say "it must be carried out".

Mr Salonius-Pasternak says that Finns are guilty of wishful thinking if they think the country could stay neutral in a future large-scale conflict between Russia and Nato forces, especially after joining the EU in 1995.

"It may have been possible in the cold war to stay out of a conflict between the US and the Soviet Union, but we won't be able to stay out of it now if there's a dogfight in the Baltics."

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