Nigel Farage's challenge to mainstream Britain

Nigel Farage, leader of the insurgent UK Independence party, aspires to be the man who determines the outcome of next month's general election. Under the first past the post electoral system, Ukip - which wants to take Britain out of the EU - is unlikely to win more than a handful of seats at Westminster. But the increase in its support - polls have it as the third largest party on about 15 per cent - means it is likely to take votes from Conservative candidates, threatening David Cameron's hopes of a Commons majority. Like him or not, Mr Farage cannot be ignored.

The rise of Mr Farage is one of the more improbable stories in British politics. Less than a decade ago, Ukip was a eurosceptic splinter group run by disenchanted Thatcherites and europhobic academics. The party's manifesto at the 2010 election was so incoherent that Mr Farage later conceded that it was "drivel." Mr Cameron derided Ukip as a movement filled with "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists".

Today, the prime minister's contemptuous dismissal looks premature. Mr Farage is an effective communicator whose blokeish style contrasts with what he calls the "cardboard cut-out" main party leaders. His relentless anti-EU campaigning has forced Mr Cameron to pledge an in-out referendum on Britain's membership of the bloc. Mr Farage has played skilfully on the disaffection of blue-collar voters who feel the fruits of globalisation have passed them by, and who are alienated from the mainstream parties.

Nor can his central offer - to clamp down on immigration in ways the other parties are too squeamish to consider - be completely ignored. Mr Farage is regularly attacked by the larger parties as prejudiced against immigrants. But Ukip has benefited from the failure of both the Tories and Labour to address voters' concerns. The Tories remain stubbornly fixated on their undeliverable pledge to bring net migration down to "the tens of thousands" by 2015. Labour is haunted by its serious underestimate over how many east Europeans would come to the UK after EU enlargement in 2004.

Both the main parties would have fared better had they honestly conceded Mr Farage's accusation - that Britain's membership of the EU limits the government's ability to control migrant flows. The Conservatives have woken up more recently, reframing the debate around measures where government can make a difference, such as a clampdown on foreign welfare claimants.

Ukip's manifesto is slicker than the last one. Mr Farage is the only party leader to raise the need for Britain to maintain defence spending at 2 per cent of GDP - an important issue that has been sidelined in this election.

But on many matters, Ukip cannot be viewed as a credible alternative to the main parties. It is a fledgling movement without any serious figures beyond Mr Farage. Its commitment to pull Britain out of the EU and the single market would put prosperity at risk and undermine the UK's place in the world. Ukip's policy on Europe is not based on a cool analysis of the pros and cons of membership such as the importance of investment and jobs. It is an emotional reaction based more on a romanticised version of the past when Britannia ruled the waves.

Ukip's fiscal policy abounds with populist promises to abolish inheritance tax and green levies. The party's relentless focus on immigration, setting it up as the most important issue facing the British people, creates discord within communities and risks stoking racist instincts. In the final weeks of the election campaign, all parties should find ways to undercut Mr Farage and his message.

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