Warming seas mean haddock could be staple of the past

Haddock may be a fish and chip shop staple today but warming seas mean that red mullet and John Dory could end up replacing it on the menu in coming years.

"We will see a real changing of the guard in the next few decades," said Dr Steve Simpson of the University of Exeter, co-author of a study showing many popular North Sea fish may become far less common in future.

"Our models predict cold water species will be squeezed out, with warmer water fish likely to take their place," he said.

"For sustainable UK fisheries, we need to move on from haddock and chips and look to southern Europe for our gastronomic inspiration."

Other current favourites such as plaice and lemon sole may also become less common, according to the research published in the Nature Climate Change journal.

The North Sea has already warmed four times faster than the global average over the past 40 years, the researchers said, and higher temperatures are predicted over the coming century.

Some fish species can only thrive in certain habitats and depths, so the scientists looked at climate model predictions from the Met Office and long term fisheries data to consider the likely impact on the UK's favourite fish over the next 50 years.

The team found that as the North Sea warms, some species would find it difficult to move further north to avoid warmer temperatures because they would not be able to find suitable depths.

This meant they would probably become less abundant.

Haddock are likely to be able to move to cooler regions but flat fish such as plaice, dab and lemon sole, which need shallow muddy waters, may not be able to find suitable habitats.

Cod - that other chip shop stalwart - are not likely to be directly affected by warmer seas, said Dr Simpson, but their prey may suffer so there could be an indirect impact unless they change their diets.

The fish likely to become more common around UK waters include John Dory, red mullet, anchovies, squid and cuttlefish.

The findings are contrary to expectations that even as seas warm, fish will be able to move to cooler waters to thrive, so the research has important implications for the commercial fishing industry and consumers.

"Our study suggests that we will see proportionally less of some of the species we eat most of as they struggle to cope with warming conditions in the North Sea," said Louise Rutterford, postgraduate researcher at the University of Exeter.

"We provide new insight into how important local depths and associated habitats are to these commercial species. It's something that is not always captured in existing models that predict future fish distributions."

Some of the authors who produced the latest research were involved in an earlier study which found that warming seas around the UK have already led to a decline in common fish such as pollack, cod and haddock.

At the same time, some warmer water species such as red mullet have increased in number over the past 30 years.

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