Syria's rebels heartened by healing of Sunni Arab rift

Syria's rebels are on the offensive once again as their regional backers unite in a Sunni Muslim resurgence and prioritise pushing President Bashar al-Assad to step down.

After more than a year of stalemate or outright losses against Mr Assad's forces, rebels this month have made strategic and symbolic military gains on both northern and southern frontiers.

"They want Assad to feel like the noose is tightening," said Safi al-Hamwi, a Syrian activist who works in Riyadh. "The mood here [in Saudi Arabia] has changed. Now, they are saying: we still have a presence, we still have influence."

Since foreign money first started pouring into the conflict in 2012, the rebels' progress has often been tied to the whims of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, their main regional patrons. For more than a year, rebels complained of sabotaged battles and infighting fuelled by their backers' rivalries.

Now Riyadh is focusing on Shia Iran, its main rival, whose clout is growing across the region. In Iraq it is spearheading the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or Isis. In Syria, Iran is supporting Mr Assad and in Yemen it is backing Shia Houthi rebels who have taken over the capital and are pushing south.

Alarmed by Tehran's growing regional influence and the prospect of Iran being rehabilitated in the international community if a nuclear deal is agreed, the kingdom under the rule of King Salman is papering over differences with fellow Sunni states, especially Turkey and Qatar.

Riyadh and Ankara had been at odds over the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings. While Turkey and its ally Qatar have backed brotherhood groups, Saudi Arabia and its ally the UAE see the pan-Arab Islamist group as a threat to their rule, and have worked to undermine its regional operations.

Lina Khatib, director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, says Riyadh feels it has undermined the group's potency since the Brotherhood-led government was overthrown in Cairo in 2013 and is now willing to work with the group's patrons to bring together Sunni powers against Iran.

Saudi Arabia is also sorting out internal divisions: different princes had privately backed jihadi or pro-western groups, while the late King Abdullah chose disengagement in protest at the lack of US involvement. "It became obvious this was not just hurting Syria but Saudi interests as well," Ms Khatib said.

Many Syrian rebels believe Operation Storm of Resolve, Saudi Arabia's air campaign against the Houthis, is a sign that Riyadh and its allies will act more forcefully in Syria as well, re-energising their fight against the Assad regime.

Rebels in northern Syria last month captured the city of Idlib, an administrative centre in the heart of the opposition's first stronghold. In the south, opposition forces foiled an offensive led by regime allies from Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia militia, and military advisers from Iran's Revolutionary Guard. The opposition has now set its sights on Deraa. The city about 100km from Damascus is key to relieving besieged rebels on the capital's outskirts and hitting the government's seat of power.

"We are coming to break the siege on our brothers. We will knock on the doors of Damascus," said Abu al-Majed al-Zoabi of the Yarmouk Brigades, one of the largest rebel units in the Southern Front alliance.

A military defeat of Mr Assad is still unlikely. The regional push is probably aimed at levelling the playing field and pushing the president to negotiate a political solution.

"We should be wary of overestimating rebel gains because while notable, there has not been a change in the dynamics," said Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain.

But for the first time since their revolution began, rebels note that advances in the north and south are coinciding, and their backers' two operations rooms - one in Turkey used by Ankara and Doha, and another in Jordan used more by Saudi Arabia and western allies - appear to be co-ordinating.

For two years rebels complained the operations rooms, particularly in Jordan, stalled battles by withdrawing funds and supplies whenever foreign powers grew hesitant. Now, they say, this has changed, and point to Nasib, the last regime-controlled border crossing with Jordan. Long seen as an easy target, rebels say they were blocked from attacking it by patrons who feared giving them control of the border area. Last week, however, it was captured by opposition fighters.

"There are no more red lines now. Everything is a target," said one activist, who asked not to be named.

But opposition members say that with the weapons they receive, it is clear that foreign powers will not let them defeat the regime outright. "Assad still wins many battles by air - or destroys our victories by pummeling liberated areas with bombs," said Mr Hamawi. "If they sent anti-aircraft missiles, then we'd know we had the OK to win this militarily."

Such calculations leave many Syrians feeling they are still pawns in a game. "On both sides of this conflict, no group in Syria is allowed to make its own decisions any more," said activist Tareq Abdelhaq. "It will destroy our country."

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