Economic Outlook: Last inflation and jobs data before UK poll

Chinese releases, US inflation, a rate announcement from the European Central Bank and the last inflation and labour market data in the UK before the general election are the highlights of this week's economic calendar.

Monday will bring Chinese trade numbers, with gross domestic product for the first quarter following on Wednesday along with industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data.

China's economic expansion has fallen with its property prices, and export growth is likely to decline to 9 per cent from 48.9 per cent the previous month, suggesting that the world's largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity faces falling external, as well as domestic, demand.

GDP growth is forecast to slow only modestly, however, from 7.3 per cent in the fourth quarter to 7 per cent in the first quarter of 2015. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment are expected to have picked up slightly in March.

The US inflation reading for last month, out on Friday, is expected to have risen again with petrol prices having probably bottomed out in February. Retail sales on Tuesday and Wednesday's Empire manufacturing survey and industrial production should provide an indication of the health of the economy.

Also on Wednesday the ECB will meet. The first month of quantitative easing went off relatively well and the Eurofirst 300 is approaching a 15-year high, so a change in policy is unlikely. But the press conference will provide interest as markets await the reaction of Mario Draghi, ECB president, to a run of positive data from the eurozone.

Tuesday and Friday are the important days in the UK, with the publication of inflation and labour market data respectively. The price level is thought to have remained broadly stable in the past month with no growth.

Wages are expected to have continued to grow at a rate of about 1.7 per cent, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.6 per cent from 5.7 per cent.

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