Farage locked in three-way battle for political survival

In "The Battle For Thanalot", a thinly disguised satire playing this week in the Kent coastal town of Broadstairs, a 5th-century electorate is wooed by Len Mordrage, leader of the Free Independent Britons. Tankard in hand, Mordrage insists that "I'm thinking what you're thinking", blaming Anglo-Saxon immigrants for deer shortages and overcrowded plague hospitals. He wants to leave the over-bureaucratic Roman empire and create a new state: Faragia. In the end, however, King Arthur vanquishes the upstart.

Back in the real South Thanet of 2015, stopping Britain's most famous populist politician is fast becoming more than a fantasy. Nigel Farage has long been the favourite to win the marginal constituency on the Kent coast. But a ComRes poll last week suggesting that the United Kingdom Independence party, Conservatives and Labour are in a three-way tie has encouraged Mr Farage's opponents to redouble efforts to beat him. Mr Farage has said that defeat would lead to his resignation as Ukip leader.

A loss would stun Ukip, which Mr Farage has turned from struggling political misfit into the first new party for more than a century to win a nationwide vote - in last year's European election. It would defenestrate Ukip at the beginning of a new parliament. Tantalised by that prospect, the Tories have dispatched staff from headquarters, organised visits from cabinet ministers and increased spending on social media. A senior figure in the campaign explains: "If you want to win the Vietnam war, you don't bomb the paddy fields. You have to take out Ho Chi Minh."

That is, if you can spot him. Mr Farage spent much of this week outside South Thanet and when he appears he is surrounded by security guards, reporters and cameramen. Local staff have been told to not talk to the press. Ostensibly open meetings are often ticketed affairs with scripted questions. After a series of scandals, Ukip is restricting access to its gaffe-prone South Thanet party. "The momentum is with Ukip", Mr Farage insists in a 20-minute appearance in Broadstairs, before walking along the beach and into a black Land Rover.

The two main parties concede that their relentless efforts could cost them both by allowing Mr Farage a narrow win in a three-way contest. But they are still trying hard to stop him.

Craig Mackinlay, the Conservative candidate, is canvassing in a more prosaic manner in Nethercourt, a closely fought ward in Ramsgate. He perks up when an organiser says her data suggest the house contains "soft kippers": winnable Ukip supporters. It is these voters the 47-year old sees as critical. The former Ukip deputy leader, who defected in 2005, thinks he has a hard message for soft kippers: only the Tories can deliver an EU referendum.

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Also campaigning in Nethercourt is Will Scobie, the 24-year-old Labour candidate whose strong polling has surprised many people. He has had fewer big name visits than Mr Mackinlay but boasts dozens of local volunteers and financing from former Liberal Democrat peer Lord Oakeshott.

Mr Scobie is also trying to attract moderate Tories who supported the outgoing Conservative MP Laura Sandys, and Lib Dems put off by Mr Mackinlay's Ukip past. He tells eurosceptic voters that he wants to stay in the EU, but would support a referendum on membership in defiance of his party.

Mr Mackinlay and Mr Scobie agree on two things. First, that they are the only people who can beat Mr Farage. Second, that Thanet South is not the ideal seat for the Ukip candidate.

"That's where Nigel Farage has got it wrong - Thanet is not Clacton", adds Jacqueline Walker. A member of the Thanet Stand Up To Ukip group putting on the Thanalot play, Ms Walker argues that the demographics are not as favourable as in the constituency Ukip won in a by-election last year. She says, for example, that middle-class black Britons and arty types from London have moved here in recent years.

<>Mr Scobie insists Thanet's Labour base is strong but Matthew Goodwin, an expert on Ukip, is sceptical. "Don't believe the hype - Labour cannot win this seat." South Thanet is 42nd out of 650 in his list of "Ukip-friendly" constituencies. Ukip is attractive to its older white working class population, who feel, in Goodwin's words, "left behind" by economic change - and the Labour party. They like Mr Farage's pluck and Ukip's stance on immigration.

At his doorstep in Nethercourt, Steve Venn, a 63-year-old retired steelworker, says: "All the Tories do is smash the poor and the sick. There's no way I'd ever vote Tory." Mr Scobie asks why he is going to vote Ukip. "The trouble is, Farage talks sense. It's not racist to stop immigration. What's racist about treating your own people first?"

Mr Goodwin says Tory plans to have Ukip voters "come home" are flawed. Forty-four per cent of likely Ukip voters say the Conservatives are their second preference - a reminder that most "kippers" are not disgruntled Tories. They are also unlikely to be wooed by a message that the country is heading in the right direction; Mr Goodwin argues that they often have a "nihilist" tendency.

Ultimately, this contest of national importance will be decided by the strength of local organisations. Bookmakers suggest that Mr Farage has about a 50-50 chance of success. Without a clear anti-Farage candidate, the Ukip leader could win with a third of the votes cast. Thanalot may yet have its King Nigel.

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