Rand Paul's libertarian policy is casualty of Republican war

Rand Paul became a serious presidential candidate two years ago with a 13-hour filibuster slamming US drone policy that won rapturous reviews from conservatives around the country.

He jumped on the Edward Snowden revelations about government surveillance that soon followed, again scoring big with the base. In the space of a few months, the Kentucky senator created a national political brand as a Republican critic of military adventurism and the national security state.

Events around the world over the past year, however, have not been kind to Mr Paul and the presidential campaign he has just launched. It is a measure of the uber-hawkish tone now dominating the party that Mr Paul will give a campaign speech on Thursday in front of an aircraft carrier.

The rise of Isis has not only transformed the presidency of Barack Obama, obliging the Iraq war critic to return troops to the country, but it has also reshaped the Republican presidential primaries. As the campaign starts to heat up, Mr Paul is finding his "conservative realism" drowned out by neoconservative calls for American leadership.

Even a year ago, Mr Paul looked like he would crack open a fascinating debate within the Republican party about America's role in the world between realists and the hawks who dominated after 9/11.

Mr Paul's foreign policy views are informed by his libertarianism: if there is to be small government for social and economic policies, he believes, then the same should be true for national security. But he has also cultivated some of the more pragmatic old-hands who used to make up the Republican foreign policy establishment and who appreciated his call for the party to face up to the mistakes of the Iraq war.

While he delighted in taking aim at the party's "let's-intervene-and-consider-the-consequences-later crowd", he also started quoting George Kennan about the "distinction between vital and peripheral interests". In effect, Mr Paul had hoped to mobilise the George HW Bush wing of the party against the partisans of George W Bush.

Instead, he has walked into a buzz-saw of events and political calculation. The advances of Isis have rekindled the party's belief in the war on terror, Benjamin Netanyahu's feud with Mr Obama has made support for Israel into an article of faith and the Iran nuclear negotiations have highlighted opposition to compromise with Tehran.

He has also won the enmity of Republican operatives who believe they can tar Hillary Clinton with the unpopularity of Mr Obama's foreign policy. The last thing they want is a prominent Republican candidate rehearsing the Obama case for a more restrained approach to the world.

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After spending years criticising Republican colleagues for demonising Iran, he was one of the 47 senators who signed last month the now-infamous letter to Iran's leaders warning them not to trust any deal signed by Mr Obama. And having said last year that "I don't blame President Obama" for the rise of Isis and wondering "maybe there is no solution", his announcement speech on Tuesday struck a note of George W Bush moral clarity: "The enemy is radical Islam."

The one issue where he has really stuck to his guns was a pledge to end "unconstitutional surveillance" by the US government. His campaign website is selling an "NSA Spy Cam Blocker".

The party's hawkish tilt has also caused problems for Jeb Bush, who had called in some of his father's advisers, including former secretary of state James Baker. When Mr Baker gave a speech last month criticising Mr Netanyahu's approach to the peace process - views that were customary in the George HW Bush White House - there was a furore within the party. The former Florida governor was forced to issue a statement saying his support for Mr Netanyahu was "unwavering".

There is no obvious beneficiary from the ascendancy of neocon views in the party, with the possible exception of Florida senator Marco Rubio who has tried to establish himself as a foreign policy expert. The appeal in a general election is also uncertain. But it has made Mr Paul's quest for the Republican nomination all the more quixotic.

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