Isis senses chance to make territorial gains in Syria

It used all its trademark tactics, setting up sleeper cells and quietly building up a presence. Yet once again the world's most infamous jihadi group shocked opponents with its sudden attack from inside the Syrian capital.

For more than a year, militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or Isis, maintained a small foothold on the outskirts of Damascus without striking. Their choice to move now suggests the group senses fresh opportunity as the military balance in Syria's four-year civil war shifts once again.

After months of stalemate between President Bashar al-Assad's forces and the rebels trying to topple him, the opposition has made gains in the north and south, most critically in Deraa on the southern border with Jordan. Rebels are aiming to seize the provincial city of Deraa, just 100km from the capital. With the rebels distracted and pro-Assad forces weaker, Isis moved last week into Yarmouk, a densely populated southern district of Damascus that is largely home to Palestinian refugees.

"The fact Isis suddenly moved now . . . is about this new trend of the Assad regime weakening. So the rebels are not focused on their own areas, they're pushing on the regime. Their guard from within is down," said Hassan Hassan, a Middle East analyst who has published a book on Isis.

Opposition activists worry Isis has also been exploiting rebel frustrations in the Damascus suburbs. Starved and bombarded after almost two years of army siege, the opposition-held areas ringing the capital were on the verge of collapse. Many rebels were bitter that some leaders were accepting government-brokered ceasefires.

"A lot of fighters and locals are ready to pledge allegiance to Isis," said an activist who works with rebels in Damascus and asked not to be named. "They're angry about the way they've been starved and humiliated, and they don't know what living under Isis is like. They want to be part of something strong and retaliate for what they've suffered."

Isis, an enemy of both the regime and the rebels, has been staking out small pockets of territory around southern and central Syria for more than a year. Much of that went under the radar as Isis blitzed across eastern Syria into Mosul, Iraq's second city, shocking the world as it seized nearly a third of both countries' territory last summer. Isis is losing ground in Iraq to the US-led coalition fighting it but has held most of its territory in Syria.

Syrian activists believe the regime will tolerate an Isis spread in the south. "They are hoping to draw in coalition strikes to the south to give them military and political benefit," said one in Damascus. Coalition strikes would in effect split opposition ranks since most rebels oppose the US-led action.

Mr Hassan warns the time may be ripe for Isis to attract followers now that it has made small territorial gains. "The risk now is that the Isis gains will snowball. As it gains some ground, it gains recruits."

Some former Isis members play down the idea of a planned push for Damascus, noting that forces divided from the organisation's core territory in eastern Syria and Iraq often function autonomously.

What Isis will do next is unclear. Its presence around Damascus is still small but rebels worry it has enough pockets to launch a wider attack. The difficulty of moving into heavily fortified central Damascus means it is more likely push south toward Deraa, local activists say.

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It may even already have allies working from inside other Islamist groups.

Members of Jabhat al-Nusra, Syria's al-Qaeda branch and a rival jihadi group officially opposed to Isis, may even have facilitated the attack. An activist from the Syrian Revolution Co-ordinators' Union, who asked not to be named, said Nusra fighters helped Isis move into Yarmouk through an area they controlled.

Activists worry this means Isis is following a playbook developed in other regions: it attracts supporters from rival groups but instead of admitting them, keeps them in their roles until they can be drafted in for a surprise attack.

"The problem with this is these Islamists can change loyalties suddenly," said another opposition activist in Damascus. " You have to assume now that some of them are actually Isis."

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