Stubb turns on coalition allies in battle for re-election in Finland

Alex Stubb is facing a highly difficult task: the Finnish prime minister is essentially running against his own government for re-election.

Ahead of elections on April 19, Mr Stubb told the Financial Times that the past four years of left-right coalition government in Finland had been "a traumatic experience".

His centre-right National Coalition party had been "bound by shackles coming from the left" and there had been no "team play" in the unwieldy government that originally consisted of six of the eight parties in parliament.

The problem is that the voters do not appear to be listening in the eurozone country that became the biggest cheerleader for austerity after the financial crisis.

Known for his enthusiastic use of Twitter and his high-placed finishes in triathlon and Ironman events, the 47-year-old Mr Stubb was chosen as leader of the National Coalition party, and thus prime minister, last June to provide a burst of energy ahead of the elections.

Instead, the party slumped in the polls from about 22 per cent and first place, shortly after Mr Stubb took over as prime minister, to about 16 per cent and third place in the most recent opinion survey. "Stubb has failed; instead of injecting energy, the government under him has achieved almost nothing," says one of Finland's leading businessmen.

Mr Stubb has taken to hitting out not only at the centre-left Social Democrats, his main coalition partner, but also implicitly the whole government and Jyrki Katainen, his predecessor as party leader and prime minister, now a European commissioner.

"In many ways it has been a tough four years for my party and myself. We have been bound by shackles coming from the left. We have not been able to do all the things we wanted to do. Personally, of course, I inherited a very difficult situation both politically and economically," he says.

Finland's economy has contracted for the past three years and Mr Stubb himself has said it faces a "lost decade". Remarkably, nearly all the political parties agree on what is needed to revive the economy - a mixture of structural reforms, more jobs and budget cuts - albeit with different emphasis.

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Recent polls give first place to the Centre party, a centrist mix of urban liberals and rural farmers, making Juha Sipila, its leader, favourite to become prime minister. The big unknown is whether he turns left or right to form a government.

To the right is Mr Stubb's party and also the populist Finns, led by the charismatic Timo Soini. To the left are the Social Democrats, who in most recent polls have just edged in front of the National Coalition party into second place. Much will depend on the result, but Mr Stubb says it is fine for somebody to move from, say, prime minister to finance minister.

Antti Rinne, the finance minister and head of the Social Democrats, stands in his way. In some ways the antithesis of Mr Stubb, the former union leader lacks some of the prime minister's polish and his international experience. But he has followed Mr Stubb's diagnosis, saying it would be difficult for the two parties to be in the same coalition again.

Mr Rinne concedes the need for reforms and budget cuts but puts his emphasis on bringing back economic growth and protecting the welfare state.

"We don't want to lose our welfare society. We want to have good elderly care, we want to have good education and possibilities for all people in our society, we need to have a good social care system. To do this, we need growth," he adds in an interview.

Mr Stubb declares himself "an eternal optimist" and hopes that slick performances in the TV debates will help his cause. He is unapologetic about his style and Twitter presence, adding that it is "his duty to stay fit and energetic".

But in a country where there is little small talk and public debate is deeply serious, Mr Stubb is sometimes accused of being frivolous. The businessman says: "His constant tweeting and smiling don't play well here, especially when he has achieved so little in government."

Mr Stubb retorts that the government has cut more spending - €7bn - than any other Finnish administration while dealing with crises in Greece, Ukraine, shipyards, nickel mines, and nuclear power. But he concedes that of the two big recent attempts at structural reform - municipalities and healthcare - the former failed while the latter is "on hold". He concludes: "You win some, you lose some."

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