Labour's 'living dead' braced for SNP tsunami

One of the 40 Labour politicians who held Scottish seats in the last UK parliament reaches for a natural-disaster metaphor to describe what he expects to be the end of his career on May 7.

"It is like a tsunami - there's nothing you can do about it. It doesn't matter if you're the best swimmer in the world," he says.

For decades, Labour regularly harvested the majority of Scotland's 59 seats in the House of Commons. That was before they had to reckon with the Scottish nationalists' dynamic resurgence.

Now, many of the 40 are bracing themselves for the likelihood that they may never take their seats on the green benches again. In Westminster, some have nicknamed them "the living dead" .

"The polls are right. I hear it on the doorstep; my people hear it. We have thousands of conversations and the polls are bang on," says one of the 40. "I'll be looking for another career after May."

An Electoral Calculus prediction based on recent opinion polls suggested Labour would win only 11 constituencies north of the border next month.

This reflects the momentum behind the Scottish National party since its defeat in last year's independence referendum.

When William Bain tells constituents in Glasgow North East that the general election will be a close race, some are noticeably taken aback - Mr Bain carried the seat for Labour with a colossal 68 per cent share of the vote in 2010.

But with the SNP enjoying one of the most extraordinary surges in British political history, even the most solid Labour seat cannot be taken for granted.

"We are in a battle for the soul of Labour voters and the result is going to be quite decisive for politics in the UK," says Mr Bain, pausing between doorstep encounters during an afternoon canvassing in the working-class housing estate of Milton. "The whole of central Scotland is one big marginal right now."

Some of Labour's biggest figures could be facing defeat - even Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary.

Mr Alexander, who is also in charge of Labour's election strategy, has compared SNP support to a bridal magazine that women buy for up to a year after their wedding day to bring back happy memories. But colleagues believe that the pro-nationalist mood will not subside so quickly.

Instead, they appear forlorn in the face of a shift that has left the SNP poised to seize constituencies where bookmakers were offering 100/1 odds against them as recently as last August.

One Scottish Labour MP - or former, as of last week - sums up the mood, citing the US defence conditions scale, where Defcon 5 means normal peacetime and Defcon 1 means maximum force readiness.

<

The tabular content relating to this article is not available to view. Apologies in advance for the inconvenience caused.

A member of Labour's shadow cabinet calls the SNP rise a force capable of demolishing electoral margins that once looked impregnable: "People with majorities of 10k, 11k, 12k, 13k, 15k . . . they thought they were in parliament for life."

Ian Murray, who was MP for Edinburgh South, says the polls are pointing to a "tight fight", but insists that is not a bad thing: "It keeps you on our toes."

It is in the one-time strongholds of Glasgow, however, that the changing mood has come as the biggest shock to Labour. The city was one of only two areas where the majority voted for independence.

Compared with most of his peers, Mr Bain is relatively secure. A detailed poll of the constituency in February reported a 24 per cent swing to the SNP since 2010. This leaves Mr Bain with a seven-point lead.

John Benson, a resident of the Milton estate, said he was surprised that Labour was losing its grip on an area it has held in Westminster elections since the 1930s.

"This was always a Labour stronghold," he says from his doorstep, which looks out beyond council-built tower blocks to the rugged Campsie Fells.

Mr Benson still plans to vote for Mr Bain, despite backing independence. But among Milton neighbours, there are plenty who have turned their backs on his party.

"I was brought up with Labour . . . but I'll probably be voting SNP," says Kathleen Quinn. "Things are changing."

A recent ITV News/ComRes poll of the 40 Scottish constituencies previously held by Labour suggested the party could lose 29 to the SNP. But it also offered some comfort - reporting a smaller lead for the nationalists than other surveys have found.

Mr Bain says there are plenty of examples of late shifts in opinion in election campaigns and that Labour can still expect to benefit as the only party that could provide a change of government.

"Things can break big and late," he says. "It's all to play for."

© The Financial Times Limited 2015. All rights reserved.
FT and Financial Times are trademarks of the Financial Times Ltd.
Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in any way.
Euro2day.gr is solely responsible for providing this translation and the Financial Times Limited does not accept any liability for the accuracy or quality of the translation