Khamenei left to wrestle with fallout from Iran's nuclear deal

When the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini consented to a 1988 ceasefire in the Iran-Iraq war, he described the painful decision as "more deadly than taking poison." His pledge to fight until victory had been shattered by eight years of bloodshed and economic deprivation, forcing him to relent "in the interest of the Islamic Republic".

His successor as supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is now opting for a similarly momentous choice, drinking from a poisoned chalice as he abandons much of his nuclear programme to save Iran from the depth of isolation and economic distress.

Despite Tehran's narrative of victory in the aftermath of last week's Lausanne nuclear agreement, no amount of spin can conceal the enormous concessions of an Islamic regime for which the achievement of a nuclear deterrent has been an overriding priority.

Iran has held on to the right to enrich uranium and averted the outright dismantlement of nuclear sites. But the progress trumpeted over the past decade will be radically reversed, replaced by strict restrictions and inspections.

If the remaining details of the agreement are successfully hammered out by the June deadline, Mr Khamenei will face his gravest test yet as he manages the fallout.

To be sure, his support for an agreement that enjoys widespread popular support can restore some legitimacy to his leadership. He will reap part of the popular approval that will be showered on President Hassan Rouhani as the accord begins to yield relief from the sanctions that have ravaged Iran's economy.

Many Iranians have not forgotten, nor forgiven, the supreme leader's harsh crackdown on the street protests that followed the flawed 2009 presidential election. His actions at the time condemned Iran to another term under Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the president whose radicalism and mismanagement worsened the impact of sanctions and deepened Iran's isolation.

Four years later, Iranians delivered their verdict on the supreme leader's backing for Mr Ahmadi-Nejad when they elected Mr Rouhani, who ran on the promise of ending sanctions and restoring Iran's relations with the world.

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For months, Mr Khamenei has forced hardliners into an uncomfortable silence as he lent his support to the nuclear negotiators. But he has also made clear that he intends to limit the potentially transformative nature of the agreement, ruling out a genuine rapprochement with the US.

As Ali Vaez, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, notes, the supreme leader has described the nuclear compromise as "heroic flexibility", using the analogy of a wrestler who at times has to take a step back before resuming the fight.

"To satisfy his core constituency, Khamenei has to make sure that this compromise isn't interpreted as the beginning of a slippery slope in which the Islamic republic will compromise on other strategic issues," says Mr Vaez.

True, on a long-term view, a nuclear accord can be seen as the first significant step in bringing Iran back from the cold. It will bolster the moderate factions in the regime, lending them greater authority to tackle other foreign policy issues. The deal, moreover, was made possible by the restoration of some trust between Tehran and Washington, which could pave the way for co-operation elsewhere.

In the short term, however, the supreme leader's focus will be on the limited scope of the international agreement. It is likely that the regime will do nothing to ease the interventions in Middle East crises that enrage its Arab neighbours, with proxy fights from Yemen to Syria set to continue, if not escalate. Anti-Israeli rhetoric might also be stepped up.

Eliminating Iran's nuclear threat stands as the only diplomatic achievement in a Middle East blighted by conflict and chaos. But it will take a long time before it can have a soothing effect on the region.

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