Muhammadu Buhari's democratic rebirth

Nigerians with a grounding in British history have found their analogy for General Muhammadu Buhari's epic struggle to regain power in the legend of Robert the Bruce.

Before inflicting a humiliating defeat on the British at the battle of Bannockburn in 1314, the Scottish king drew courage from a spider, grappling to spin its web across the roof of a cave. The spider only succeeded after three attempts, inspiring the maxim: "If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try, again."

Gen Buhari, who is among a clutch of former generals who rose to prominence in the turbulent aftermath of independence in 1960, first came to power in a coup in 1983. Professing himself a born-again democrat, he made three previous attempts to win it back at the ballot box, each time gaining only about half the votes he needed.

His resounding victory this week, in the face of bounteous skulduggery, is an object lesson in perseverance and arguably one of the most significant political events on the continent since the 1994 election in South Africa brought an end to white minority rule. For the first time in Nigeria's history an incumbent president has been unseated by the electorate, along with the party that has governed (and often misgoverned) Nigeria since military rule ended in 1999.

For the first time also, a sitting Nigerian president accepted with humility that he was obliged to go.

Elated by the positive implications for the country's fledgling democracy, Olusegun Obasanjo, a former president, told the Financial Times this week that if he were to live another life, he would choose to be a Nigerian a second time. The country, he said, had surmounted many crises since independence. "Some people in Africa believe an incumbent government cannot be removed by the will of the people," he added. "We have done it." Mr Obasanjo, with whom the incoming president has not always seen eye to eye, said he believed Gen Buhari was "intelligent enough" to move Africa's most-populous state forward. "He is a man who lives a modest life and I believe he will manage the affairs of Nigeria by and large the way he manages his own affairs."

Although this week's events are unique, there is also a sense of deja vu about the general's march to power, 30 years after he first took it in a coup. In 1983, as now, Africa's leading oil producer was in the throes of an oil shock. A collapse in state revenues revealed how bloated government had become. Austerity beckoned, and Gen Buhari imposed it with a "war on indiscipline" in the 20 months before he was overthrown by rival officers.

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His second wife, Aisha, with whom he also has five children, is now the first lady in waiting. The statuesque beauty of one of his daughters proved to be an electoral asset; when a photograph of her went viral, one social media commentator observed that "anyone who can produce her can produce the change we need."

In 2011, when Gen Buhari last tried and failed to win power at the polls, change did not seem so attractive. Each of his previous campaigns came at a time when oil prices - on which Nigeria still depends for about 70 per cent of state revenues - were either recovering or close to their peak. His ascetic reputation was a bit of a damp squib when the country was enjoying an oil boom.

Curbing the excesses of the political class - the centrepiece of the lean, 72-year-old's campaign - has a more urgent ring now the oil price has fallen. So has his pledge to tackle the spread of Boko Haram terrorists in the north.

Gen Buhari is something of a throwback, one of a group of generals and coup plotters from yesteryear who have remained influential ever since. Their concern, when they joined the army as young men in the 1960s, was to find a way for the predominately Muslim north to catch up with the much more developed and mostly Christian south. That quandary persists today.

Born in the northern state of Katsina, in the dusty brush of the Sahel, Gen Buhari now sits atop a complex coalition that helped win him support in the south, where in the last election he garnered almost none. He has softened and developed a twinkling sense of humour, as transpired in a recent interview when your correspondent ran out of paper. "Not ideal for a journalist," he quipped.

Despite the broad alliance he has built, pulling Nigerians together at a time of intensifying regional, religious and ethnic friction will be a daunting task. Some southern Christians, conscious of how pockets of their region have modernised and taken off in recent years, remain uneasy that the presidency is shifting back north.

"This is a major northern revival which will take a while for the others to wake up and recognise," says a contemporary of Gen Buhari's who served in several governments. "When they do they are going to feel very uncomfortable. Much will depend on how he exercises power and how sensitive he is to national unity."

The writer is the FT's African affairs writer

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