Northwest marginal seats hold key to UK election outcome

About 180,000 leaflet drops: 84 canvassing rounds; a dozen or more church hall meetings; five hustings and regular 84-hour weeks; it is going to be a gruelling election run-up for David Mowat as he tries to hold off the Labour party in Warrington South.

His constituency, in a well-heeled part of Cheshire, is one of 80 key marginal Labour/Conservative battlegrounds across northwest England and the West Midlands where the May 7 vote could be won or lost.

The 2015 contest is the most unpredictable for a generation. Almost all pollsters say it is highly unlikely either of the two main parties will win a majority of the 650 seats that are for the taking.

Analysts agree the "incumbency factor" for sitting Conservative MPs could be potent because many were elected in 2010 for the first time and are likely to be hard-working with high local profiles. But the anti-Europe and anti- immigration call of the UK Independence party has eaten into their vote, the Scottish National party is on the march and threatening to take dozens of Labour seats in Scotland and Liberal Democrat support has collapsed to single figures.

The fragmentation of the political landscape has made it harder for the two parties to identify and target floating voters. "There is no silver bullet, no one key demographic who will pull one party over the line," says Tom Mludzinski, head of political polling at ComRes. "The electorate is so split and voters are being pulled to so many different political parties."

Nonetheless, the Tory-Labour fight is still "pivotal" in determining who will win Number 10, says Rob Ford, lecturer in politics at Manchester university. "Labour can't form a government unless it picks up quite a lot of these seats from the Conservatives."

The two parties have a bedrock of close to 200 "safe seats" that they rely on to build majorities. The Conservative heartlands are in the prosperous commuter belt around London and the wealthy shires. Labour's base is in the industrial north and south Wales.

To win, both will have to take swing seats where neither dominates. The Conservatives need to win another 24 seats to secure an outright majority; Labour needs to add 70 seats.

While neighbouring Warrington North is a safe Labour seat, Mr Mowat is defending a 1,500 majority in a constituency with a wide range of voters. The leafy southern part is affluent, with £2m-plus mansions and manicured lawns, while the northern wards are poorer and tend to vote Labour.

"If this was in Essex, it would be a 10,000 majority. The tribe in the north are more inclined to be Labour," sighs Mr Mowat.

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Labour has 100 target seats in its sights and has 200 paid activists working in the field.

The Conservatives are bombarding key constituencies with leaflets and brochures, Labour is instead relying on activists to talk to voters on their doorsteps.

Detailed constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft in 65 key battleground seats over the past year suggests the Labour strategy is working.

The polling forecasts the Conservatives will lose 43 of 54 of its most marginal seats. A further two - Pudsey and South Swindon - are in a dead heat.

Snapshot polling of eight English seats this month backed up those figures, recording a 5 per cent swing away from the Conservatives to Labour, giving the opposition a lead in six of the eight.

On Lord Ashcroft's analysis, Mr Mowat is on course to lose his seat in May. But the former businessman is convinced he can hold on.

"All you can do in a marginal seat is try and gain a few percentage points through incumbency. I am going to talk about my local record," he says, gesturing to stacks of election leaflets that highlight new flood defences and new local bridges. "I am not an ambassador for the national campaign."

<>His team are doing daily leaflet drops and door knocks, touring Conservative-leaning territory and encouraging people to vote. In the comfortable Appleton ward of south Warrington, Mr Mowat receives a reasonable welcome.

Jim Keenan, says he will be voting for Mr Mowat. The 80-year-old describes it as "the most important election in my lifetime".

"We have the enemy coming from Scotland who seem to detest this country," he says. "I am appalled by the idea that people who don't like our country could control what happens to our parliament."

But 100 yards down the road in Highfield Avenue, a Labour couple slam the door in their MP's face. Mr Mowat is stoical: "I am not upset: 20,000 people in my constituency are going to vote Labour."

"There are three drivers to this election," says Mr Mowat. "One is the number of seats Labour lost to the SNP. The second is how many seats the Lib Dems lost to the Conservatives and the third is to what extent Labour can makes gains from the Conservatives. The size of all these three shifts will determine the election."

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